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the correlation goes the other way

Posted on: June 27, 2019 at 13:21:56 CT
phrejd STL
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when a program that has had recent success offers a recruit, rivals interprets that as a signal that the recruit must be good, so they rate that recruit higher than someone that gets an offer from a program that has recently struggled.

the rating is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator, and the class ratings are nothing more than recency bias taking shape.
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Hungry 3 star players vs. prima donna 5 star plays. Which - LONGTIMETIGERFAN MU - 6/27 07:34:01
     Easy answer. 5* players. My experience all things equal - Ozland Tiger LSU - 6/27 16:01:08
     Can field fun competitive teams with 3 stars, but - McKinneyTiger MU - 6/27 15:48:06
     This kind of “psychology” is probably not valid - tigersailor MU - 6/27 13:59:10
     RE: Hungry 3 star players vs. prima donna 5 star plays. Which - BobD9842 USA - 6/27 13:34:43
     Alabama and Clemson get 5 star players. - ERB KC - 6/27 13:13:11
          Agree. Let's do what Alabama and Clemson does. That type - MATO MU - 6/27 14:11:09
               bingo (nm) - zounami MU - 6/27 14:37:43
          It really matters for the top 10 schools - Hickeytime MU - 6/27 13:26:21
          the correlation goes the other way - phrejd MU - 6/27 13:21:56
               of course - a correlation goes both ways by definition.... - zounami MU - 6/27 13:52:45
                    they don't do independent evaluations. you are naive at best - phrejd MU - 6/27 13:59:10
                         then how does Bama end up with 3-star and even 2-star - zounami MU - 6/27 14:03:18
                              here's how: - phrejd MU - 6/27 17:30:19
                                   remained a 3-star with offers from Michigan & Alabama?... - zounami MU - 6/27 18:33:17
                                   and here's how: - phrejd MU - 6/27 17:34:21
                                        remained a 3-star with offers from Tennessee, Alabama, and - zounami MU - 6/27 18:33:51
                                        and here's how: - phrejd MU - 6/27 17:38:53
                                             remained a 3-star?... if so, proves my point (nm) - zounami MU - 6/27 18:34:06
                                                  you are clearly not understanding this. but best of luck - phrejd MU - 6/27 19:15:46
                                             and here's how: - phrejd MU - 6/27 17:50:06
               LOL(nm) - ToTheFinishLine MU - 6/27 13:25:06
                    Southern Cal won the class rating championship in 2015 - phrejd MU - 6/27 13:34:11
                         Really easy answer: QB was really young. The most - ToTheFinishLine MU - 6/27 13:50:18
                              so their ranking championship and 5 straight years of top 10 - phrejd MU - 6/27 13:58:12
                                   If the QB sucks, the rest of the team doesn't matter, does - ToTheFinishLine MU - 6/27 15:25:15
                                        lol. their QB is a 5*, #4 rated player in the nation. you're - phrejd MU - 6/27 17:43:24
                                   good recruiting doesn't guarantee success on the field... - zounami MU - 6/27 14:01:58
                                        really? **** i had no idea. thanks for that tidbit of info (nm) - phrejd MU - 6/27 17:44:17
     5 (and 4) star prospects... you need them to compete for - zounami MU - 6/27 11:52:31
     the ratings are bunk - FootballRefugee MU - 6/27 11:36:42
          At the 3 star level, yes - Eggs KC - 6/27 11:44:17
               there are plenty of 5-star busts, too - FootballRefugee MU - 6/27 11:56:36
                    no, the vast majority of 5 stars are can't-miss prospects... - zounami MU - 6/27 12:03:22
     We've seen the ceiling of hungry 3 star players - Eggs KC - 6/27 11:30:24
          Like SMU pony'd up for the Pony Express?(nm) - jake_mu MU - 6/27 14:34:14
          Tom Osborne and Bob Devaney had to do things - FootballRefugee MU - 6/27 11:57:20
               RE: Tom Osborne and Bob Devaney had to do things - BobD9842 USA - 6/27 13:37:15
                    ...the battle with the police and the courts - FootballRefugee MU - 6/27 14:28:01
     I would love to see us load up on almost 4 & 4 star players - MU-TULSA MU - 6/27 10:37:05
     I think you mean pre-Madonna players. Nm - BandG MU - 6/27 09:57:09
          Seems they would be quite old(nm) - meatiger MU - 6/27 10:51:46
               in a few years pre-LadyGaga will be too old (nm) - zounami MU - 6/27 11:59:02
     5 star - Cosmo MU - 6/27 09:48:35
     5 stars, obviously. (nm) - Newcatbirdseat MU - 6/27 09:42:22
          ✔️ ✔️ - Spartus MWSC - 6/27 11:56:19
     Give me the better players...since those are the teams that - TheWildcat STL - 6/27 09:38:42
     I think that's why since the program was stabilized - Genco98 MU - 6/27 08:21:16
          We did recruit better under GP, usually, than we have lately - Gamagrass MU - 6/27 11:25:04
          We had good teams every year under GP except - RayPecTiger18 MU - 6/27 10:02:07
               Pinkel had the right guys in the right spots, just no depth(nm) - ToTheFinishLine MU - 6/27 10:16:44
     Sure, but talent will usually win out. And a - GA Tiger MU - 6/27 08:13:20
     RE: Hungry 3 star players vs. prima donna 5 star plays. Which - Knopf MU - 6/27 08:04:33
     you want the most talented guys you can get - Jeff85 MU - 6/27 07:38:57
          Yes. That’s why teams in the playoff - wu-tangtiger MU - 6/27 08:12:04
               You get the best players you can get while doing 2 things - alwaysright MU - 6/27 08:59:49
                    #2 is the key - BigDave STL - 6/27 09:29:49




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