When will the Big 12 implode? And what impact on SEC
Posted on: December 18, 2018 at 12:42:53 CT
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will it have?
The Big 12 Grant of Rights expires in only 6 years. At that point, every team is free to leave the conference without penalty, and another conference can expand and get a new TV contract that encompasses the new market's footprint.
The Big 12 doesn't have any good options for expansion. Nobody is going to leave a current P5 for them. And there are no desirable schools (financially speaking) that move the needle. Adding two or more new schools from the non P5 just cuts into the pie.
The could all band together and stay the pathetic 10 team conference they are. But they will just fall further and further behind the other conferences in television deal and annual revenue. Will Oklahoma and Texas really put up with that?
With that in mind... I think the most likely case is that expansion happens again around the 2025 time-frame and this time, its the end of the Big 12.
There will be Four P4 conferences
SEC, ACC, B1G and PAC
Now... the PAC 12 only has 12... the least amount of schools among the 4 powers.
They are likely to be desperate to land Texas and maybe both Texas and Oklahoma before someone else does.
How should the SEC play this?
In my view Texas is an absolute no starter. Mizzou and A&M and Arkansas all left because of them. And all the SEC school have to know why. They are the antithesis of a conference partner... so I don't care what they appear to add in value, it's not happening.
Oklahoma, other than a few missteps at the end there (i.e, "wallflower"), had been a pretty good conference partner to the Big 8 and then Big 12.
SEC might want to add them. New state, new footprint. They have a huge following in Dallas, Tulsa and Oklahoma City. It would be increasing their exposure to the state of Texas. And they are the greatest Big 8/12 school of all-time, another blue blood, another national title heavy team.
The problem is... is there a 16th team to add that would make Oklahoma worth it? Would they have to expand to 16? Could they make it work at just 15?
Would West Virginia be an option? Would the legislature in Oklahoma force OU to partner with Oklahoma State anywhere they try and land, or will it be every school for themselves?
Or can the SEC stay as is, and just make it work at 14, while our competitor conferences get fat?
Interesting times coming up.
If you are Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State... grab your socks and hose and pull.