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Your premise is messed up

Posted on: April 21, 2020 at 18:13:16 CT

BigDave MU

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You are comparing getting on a plane that has a 1 on 500 chance of crashing to some percentage of dying IF you catch the kung flu.

You have not factored in the chance of not catching the kung flu. Last night in Boone County, there were only 8 active cases. What are the odds of catching it if you go to a restaurant, or whatever? You just assume you will catch it, which is a false premise.

Please explain why this message is being reported.

REPLY

MESSAGE THREAD

If i told you that the plane you're about to board had a - *M* KC - 4/21 17:13:44

You need a calculator(nm) - tman MU - 4/21 21:18:34

no one in Missouri - cybertyger MU - 4/21 20:35:57

That's not even close to analogous. That would have - TigerJackSwartz MU

- 4/21 20:35:20

Have you always been such a pathetic coward? - Emoji Man MSU - 4/21 19:53:02

5,941 positive test in MO.. 8 deaths to people under 50... - shorty MU

- 4/21 19:22:14

And more Americans in that age group have died from the flu - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/21 18:26:47

COVID-19 has not run its course. You can't compare a - TigerMatt STL - 4/21 19:50:05

How does that alter anything? The current projections - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/21 20:48:14

shut it doosher. not even close. apples and oranges (nm) - TigerFan92 MU - 4/21 18:21:55

I’m not that young but not worried in the least(nm) - tigerNkc MU

- 4/21 18:14:15

Your premise is messed up - BigDave MU - 4/21 18:13:16

But if you had a 1 in 10 chance of going to the hospital - Role Call MU - 4/21 18:11:25

RE: If i told you that the plane you're about to board had a - Tigrrrr! MU

- 4/21 18:06:57

"Shhh." - Charles Darwin (nm) - noodle MU - 4/21 17:58:02

That is a bogus stat - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/21 17:32:42

wrong. That stat is of “diagnosed” cases. People who test - *M* KC - 4/21 17:34:29

Is it utilizing the Stanford estimate of there being - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/21 17:39:23

So you will actually use "science" when it suits your - KC rules MU - 4/21 17:53:26

no he's using science. (nm) - dangertim MU

- 4/21 18:37:09

As I have said again and again - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/21 18:19:50

As long as one attempts to understand and draws logical - KC rules MU - 4/21 19:31:07

that factor is irrelevant. It is only including - *M* KC - 4/21 17:42:38

Here's how you should have structured your analogy: - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:51:08

nope. The hypothetical says there is a 1 in 500 chance - *M* KC - 4/21 17:57:09

But once I have the disease I have it. So what risk are you - ummmm MU - 4/21 18:01:08

RE: But once I have the disease I have it. So what risk are you - *M* KC - 4/21 18:05:02

If you're unwilling to consider the vast, vast majority of - ummmm MU - 4/21 18:07:00

You should have just typed "I think others are cavalier - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 18:06:28

I asked him to cop to his point and he rebuked me for the - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 18:04:15

Also, the analogy should have included the alternative - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:54:56

you're contorting real hard to find purchase for a leg - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 17:47:46

Yes - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/21 17:45:22

Several comments - *M* KC - 4/21 18:21:11

A few comments back - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/21 18:32:11

RE: A few comments back - *M* KC - 4/21 18:56:57

remember the photos of packed airports in places like - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 18:35:35

The issue here is both ends got silly - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/21 18:51:56

Then that is a bad stat and it greatly overstates the true - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:36:27

and he assumes the rates are similar everywhere. - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 17:34:29

The idea you're missing is that high risk folks should - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 17:30:13

RE: The idea you're missing is that - *M* KC - 4/21 17:31:44

You didn’t point anything out - pickle MU

- 4/21 17:42:04

Is that my fault? If i don't know at this point what - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 17:33:19

I didnt say it shold. Again, as you do every day, you - *M* KC - 4/21 17:35:49

I didn't say you did. Quit jumping to conclusions and - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 17:38:36

What disease? The flu? - jonesin - 4/21 17:28:38

Sure flutard - mizzoumurfkc KC - 4/21 18:04:31

lmfao (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 17:27:24

Math is hard.......... - TGR84 MU - 4/21 17:23:18

Math is easy. Typing on an ipad is hard(nm) - *M* KC - 4/21 17:26:41

Hahahaha - TGR84 MU - 4/21 17:28:03

the chance is 20-50 times lower than .02%(nm) - MizzouAstro MU

- 4/21 17:21:13

Actually 10 times higher, as ummmm so kindly pointed - *M* KC - 4/21 17:26:08

no - MizzouAstro MU

- 4/21 17:51:52

Same error as ummmm and 4tigs. Those people are exclude by - *M* KC - 4/21 18:00:10

50-85 - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:53:28

And person-specific. Every person between 20-45 is - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:25:09

.02% is 1 in 5,000. - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:19:20

Ive now edited my typo. Thank you. And if you fly often - *M* KC - 4/21 17:29:19

You didn't say fly often on that plane. You said get on it - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:31:52

i commend your foolhardiness. Id get out of line and - *M* KC - 4/21 17:33:03

lmao, what line is that? the line without people with yello - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 17:36:51

No, I think the other option is to wait in the terminal for - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:33:32

Typo on my part. The odds in that age group are 1 in 500 - *M* KC - 4/21 17:25:23

Those are not the odds for that group. We don't know - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:28:38

Those are the odds for that group of people diagnosed. - *M* KC - 4/21 17:30:42

The serology tests are showing that 50-85 times more COVID - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:32:59

Same error as 4tigs. My OP stat is of “diagnosed cases” - *M* KC - 4/21 17:37:31

Then it is a bad stat for assessing true risk of dying. (nm) - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:41:01

then what's the use or point of your OP? just a - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 17:40:16

the odds of what? (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 4/21 17:31:28

dumb - TexJohnson MU - 4/21 17:23:07

No. It's not. - ummmm MU - 4/21 17:26:34

lmao (nm) - pickle MU

- 4/21 17:15:05

dumber - TexJohnson MU - 4/21 17:24:01

lol you are an idiot (nm) - Sal MU

- 4/21 17:14:14

dumbest - TexJohnson MU - 4/21 17:25:01

SuxJohnson is a silly homo. - Emoji Man MSU - 4/21 19:55:24

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