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So it boils down to whether you believe 538's algorithms

Posted on: November 1, 2016 at 13:42:56 CT

JeffB MU

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M.O.B. Votes:

above the unmassaged numbers from the more current polls.

I suppose you can make that case, but I personally think the more current polls taken after the FBI announcement "trump" the earlier polls and any algorithms that rely upon them.

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MESSAGE THREAD

The 3 close states Trump needs to win to win the election - JeffB MU

- 11/1 12:40:25

He absolutely needs PA to win. (nm) - MrBlueSky MU - 11/1 12:45:05

I just presented you with a sorted table showing an easier - JeffB MU

- 11/1 13:29:07

You will be shamed election night - raskolnikov MU - 11/1 13:50:08

I'm just presenting the results of the latest state polls... - JeffB MU

- 11/1 14:44:12

Needs OH, PA, NC too C's lead in PA - insurmountable - raskolnikov MU - 11/1 12:43:13

Not according to the most recent polls listed on 270towin.co - JeffB MU

- 11/1 12:51:08

RE: Not according to the most recent polls listed on 270towin.co - MrBlueSky MU - 11/1 12:52:08

I'm using the most recent polls. 538 is using older polls - JeffB MU

- 11/1 13:32:07

Has not been that big a shift and it is still early to take - raskolnikov MU - 11/1 13:51:10

RE: I'm using the most recent polls. 538 is using older polls - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 13:33:14

My point still stands regardless of 538's assertion that the - JeffB MU

- 11/1 13:37:08

You sure are a true believer - raskolnikov MU - 11/1 13:52:24

You don't need anyone to tell you, just look at the polls co - JeffB MU

- 11/1 16:15:54

and 538 does weigh the new polls "heavier" for lack of a - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 13:38:28

So it boils down to whether you believe 538's algorithms - JeffB MU

- 11/1 13:42:56

well, they have been pretty accurate the last 3 elections - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 13:44:40

The unusual circumstances of having one set of polls taken - JeffB MU

- 11/1 13:49:10

all 3 are easy Trump wins.(nm) - SuperTone MU

- 11/1 12:41:06

Iowa is but the other two are not easy. - MrBlueSky MU - 11/1 12:46:52

he is up big in both.(nm) - SuperTone MU

- 11/1 12:47:50

Uhhhh.. - MrBlueSky MU - 11/1 12:49:28

oops. meant to post here: - JeffB MU

- 11/1 13:31:04

you are assuming the comey announcement is having - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 13:32:31

My reply from above: 'My point still stands regardless of - JeffB MU

- 11/1 13:45:52

BUT, those Colorado & North Carolina polls end earlier than - JeffB MU

- 11/1 13:01:36

check the skews and compare to gallup's running - SuperTone MU

- 11/1 12:54:05

You can't just cherry pick favorable polls here and there - MrBlueSky MU - 11/1 12:56:48

I'm not. i'm telling you to check them all... - SuperTone MU

- 11/1 12:57:37

I am looking at them all. In a polling aggregate (nm) - MrBlueSky MU - 11/1 13:01:53

you are paying no attention to the underlying data - FootballRefugee MU

- 11/1 13:34:37

and what are the skews of each of them?(nm) - SuperTone MU

- 11/1 13:03:06

your desperation is what i see. - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 12:59:07

that is why an aggregate of polls is better. - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 12:55:39

check all the skews....it isn't hard. - SuperTone MU

- 11/1 12:57:10

what does 538's aggregate of polls have - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 12:58:31

do you know what skews are?(nm) - SuperTone MU

- 11/1 13:03:26

yes. - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 13:04:17

so what are they? Post them if you really know - SuperTone MU

- 11/1 13:06:19

my lord you are desperate. do you not know what an - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 13:07:07

why do you keep avoiding the numbers? - SuperTone MU

- 11/1 13:09:14

you are assuming they are skewed. and they are just as - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 13:11:42

I have verified they are skewed through Gallups polling - SuperTone MU

- 11/1 13:23:53

prove it. and prove gallups polling is accurate while - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 13:24:45

I am. That is why I asked you to pick a poll - SuperTone MU

- 11/1 13:29:09

nice laydown. (nm) - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 13:30:24

LOL!! This guy competely humiliated & bails. What a Tard!(nm) - STL1DFW STL - 11/1 14:31:04

supertone's "common sense" is superior to the 538 - mizzou alum 93 MU - 11/1 12:50:33

There hasn't been a poll in over a month showing Donnie - MrBlueSky MU - 11/1 12:51:23

That is not true. Even in the links you provided 1 poll had - JeffB MU

- 11/1 13:22:29