Path to a 20-win season and beyond
Posted on: September 12, 2016 at 18:56:15 CT
mizzoudiehard MU
Posts:
9129
Member For:
18.34 yrs
Level:
User
M.O.B. Votes:
0
Many of you are assuming this team will once again finish last in the SEC, or close to it. You could certainly be correct-- the team might still be too young, might still be too undersized, might still not be good enough defensively or might still not have enough legitimate scorers on the roster.
But every year, there's a surprise program that comes out of nowhere. After two horrid seasons under Tubby Smith, did you think Texas Tech would be in the NCAA Tournament a year ago in Smith's third year?
If Kim Anderson's third year results in real progress -- meaning an above-500 record, perhaps even 20 wins and a post-season berth -- then it'll be on the heels of the sophomore class, as well as Jordan Barnett once the second semester begins.
Although every pre-season pundit will predict us to finish 14th in the SEC, we do return our leading scorer and point guard, who both had promising freshmen seasons. And we add a former Top 100 prospect in Barnett, as well as high-scoring JUCO guard and some other promising freshmen. Best-cast scenario: Puryear and Phillips blossom into All-SEC type players as sophomores, we see Walton improve as a scorer, Barnett makes a big impact at the start of the second semester, Geist provides an offensive punch and some toughness, and the freshmen come in and contribute as much as they can in smaller roles. We improve defensively, the team is more cohesive, and suddenly it's a competitive program.
The non-conference schedule has two very difficult opponents in Arizona and Xavier. Both should be Top 10 teams. But it's not an overly difficult schedule overall. Let's say we sweep our home games besides Arizona, finish 1-2 in Puerto Rico and beat Illinois. We're sitting at 9-3 heading into SEC play.
In a best-case scenario, with the improvements I mentioned above, a .500 record in the SEC would not be a total stretch or even a complete miracle. I understand you're laughing right now -- I know this team has six combined wins in the SEC in two years -- but look at the league again. Even with some modest improvement, I could absolutely see us finishing 6-3 at home, then maybe stealing a few road games (Miss. State, Auburn, Tennessee, Ole Miss are all predicted in the bottom half of the league).
A 9-3 non-conference record, with a 9-9 SEC record and then maybe 1 SEC Tournament win, would put you at 19-12 with a definite NIT possibility, depending on who we beat.
The whole point of this post, if you've even read this far, is that modest improvement could result in a really nice season. The SEC is not good, and the non-conference is not that rigorous, so this is a chance for the program to really take a step. You have every right not to believe it will happen, but for the optimists out there, this season is an opportunity.