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i appreciate the desire to consider multiple metrics, but

Posted on: September 16, 2020 at 11:18:44 CT
phrejd MU
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positivity rate is not a useful metric. especially when your rate is so low. that metric in particular is almost entirely influenced by the number of tests administered, nothing more.

just for fun, let's test it.


week 1:
-10,000 tests administered
-9,000 test results negative
-1,000 test results positive
-positive rate = 10%

week 2:
-5,000 tests administered
-4,000 test results negative
-1,000 test results positive
-positive rate = 20%
-OMG HOTSPOT OUTBREAK SURGE SHOCKING RESULTS POSITIVE RATE DOUBLED CLOSE THE SCHOOLS WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!


this is a bad metric. anyone using it to set any sort of policy has no business interpreting data.
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     They reported every single case as positive according to - alwaysright MU - 9/16 12:20:21
     positivity rate, not cases (nm) - pickle MU - 9/16 10:34:40
     also, boone county sitting at 13 hospitalized patients. - phrejd MU - 9/16 10:34:16
          Wish that were so, but it's not accurate. # much higher - Macgrantt MU - 9/16 11:16:29
               Your link shows 16 in hospital. Better shut - tman MU - 9/16 11:29:21
               i'll take the state's official numbers - phrejd MU - 9/16 11:24:34
          We flattened the f out of that curve! (nm) - BigDave MU - 9/16 11:06:06
          Don’t know if you are posing or really are this stupid - Macgrantt MU - 9/16 13:05:08
               i assume you meant to respond to a different post - phrejd MU - 9/16 13:09:09
          Positivity rate is still at 24% so I'm guessing they aren't - tgr MU - 9/16 10:13:40
               you sure about that? (nm) - phrejd MU - 9/16 10:14:04
     No, they didn't overreport positive numbers, they under - MizzouAstro MU - 9/16 09:53:03
          so what you're telling me is NEGATIVE CASES ARE KILLING - phrejd MU - 9/16 09:59:42
     small correction...they didn't over-report positive cases - TigerNuts KC - 9/16 09:21:50
          Actual number of positive cases isn't known because most - alstl MU - 9/16 09:24:44
               You're right but they should be looking at all of it - TigerNuts KC - 9/16 10:41:48
                    They don't know the positivity rate because they don't know - alstl MU - 9/16 10:56:18
                         hospitalization numbers are the most relevant and reliable, - phrejd MU - 9/16 11:03:31
                              positivity rate is a relevant proxy metric - TigerNuts KC - 9/16 11:07:27
                                   i appreciate the desire to consider multiple metrics, but - phrejd MU - 9/16 11:18:44
                                        that's why normalizations are put in place - TigerNuts KC - 9/16 11:21:11
                                             that's a different metric. - phrejd MU - 9/16 11:28:46
                         well no shyt, no one is saying that - TigerNuts KC - 9/16 10:58:38
               ^^^^Some JG math here^^^^(nm) - tgr MU - 9/16 09:42:30
                    in NYC nobody is getting sick now because the idiot mayor - alstl MU - 9/16 09:48:19
                         Or New York has some of the most stringent regulations - tgr MU - 9/16 10:07:10
                              You mean like this? - Eggs MU - 9/16 10:50:24
                                   It's cool, they're all wearing masks - Cosmo MU - 9/16 10:52:11
                              The entire city got the virus. (nm) - alstl MU - 9/16 10:30:04
                              your 60-70% assumption for herd immunity is inaccurate(nm) - phrejd MU - 9/16 10:17:42
                                   When the feds converted the Javits Center into a hospital - alstl MU - 9/16 10:49:40
                                        They didn't pack 8 million people into one building - TigerNuts KC - 9/16 11:03:21
                                             the fundamental argument is whether limiting interaction - phrejd MU - 9/16 11:11:46
                                                  your premise is flawed - TigerNuts KC - 9/16 11:19:59
                                                       fine, add "do this for 7 years while we wait for a vaccine" - phrejd MU - 9/16 11:32:36
                                        Hmm, sounds exactly like what happened in Italy(nm) - Eggs MU - 9/16 10:51:02
                                             no in italy it sounded like this: - phrejd MU - 9/16 10:55:04
                                   I've read the same number of 60-70%. - kmawv8 MU - 9/16 10:21:08
                                        15-20% seems like it might be a magic number(nm) - Eggs MU - 9/16 10:49:08
                                        that's needed for B cell (humoral) immunity. - dangertim MU - 9/16 10:28:24
                                             Sweden is the interesting study - Eggs MU - 9/16 10:56:03
                                                  yeah but everyone is sweden died, so, like there's that. - phrejd MU - 9/16 11:31:18
                                        at least 120%-140% - phrejd MU - 9/16 10:23:32
               90%...lol(nm) - meatiger MU - 9/16 09:33:33
     This will **** off Gabe and Dave (nm) - ZouMiz STL - 9/16 09:16:37
          you won't hear a peep about it from either of them - phrejd MU - 9/16 10:41:09




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