i appreciate the desire to consider multiple metrics, but
Posted on: September 16, 2020 at 11:18:44 CT
phrejd MU
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positivity rate is not a useful metric. especially when your rate is so low. that metric in particular is almost entirely influenced by the number of tests administered, nothing more.
just for fun, let's test it.
week 1:
-10,000 tests administered
-9,000 test results negative
-1,000 test results positive
-positive rate = 10%
week 2:
-5,000 tests administered
-4,000 test results negative
-1,000 test results positive
-positive rate = 20%
-OMG HOTSPOT OUTBREAK SURGE SHOCKING RESULTS POSITIVE RATE DOUBLED CLOSE THE SCHOOLS WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!
this is a bad metric. anyone using it to set any sort of policy has no business interpreting data.