 |
|
Can't say b.o.a.t. on here? ;) If those infection rates are
Posted on: April 26, 2020 at 17:24:03 CT
JeffB MU
Posts:
70165
Member For:
20.96 yrs
Level:
User
M.O.B. Votes:
0
accurate, it would indicate that the infection fatality rate is still pretty high.
New York State has 21,908 deaths. Their overall infection rate is going to be lower than it is for New York City.
Their population is 19,453,561. 15% of that would be 2,918,034 people infected. That's obviously a little high as upstate NY is likely have a lot lower % infected, but it gives us a bit of a margin for error.
As noted above, NY state has 21,908 deaths.
21,908/2,918,034 infected would give an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of a little over 0.0075
In the study referred to in 90Tiger's article http://www.tigerboard.com/boards/view.php?message=16908058 they came up with an estimate of 80% infection for the US based upon an R0 of 2.4. I have seen a couple of studies, still awaiting peer review, that placed that R0 significantly higher at 4.08 & 5.xx. But as noted in his article, given the massive publicity, people are likely to alter behavior significantly, so I'll guesstimate a lower national infection rate, assuming we open the country back up some, but many people still doing varying degrees of social distancing, wearing masks, washing hands, etc. 70% is a fairly reasonable guess over the course of a year or so, it seems to me, but anyone can substitute other numbers for comparison.
If 70% of NY state was infected, that would then result in 102,237 deaths in NY.
If 70% of the US were infected at that IFR it would result in 1,739,570 deaths.
Those are pretty sobering numbers.
Edited by JeffB at 17:32:51 on 04/26/20
New York State has 21,908 deaths. Their overall infection rate is going to be lower than it is for New York City.
Their population is 19,453,561. 15% of that would be 2,918,034 people infected. That's obviously a little high as upstate NY is likely have a lot lower % infected, but it gives us a bit of a margin for error.
As noted above, NY state has 21,908 deaths.
21,908/2,918,034 infected would give an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of a little over 0.0075
In the study referred to in 90Tiger's article http://www.tigerboard.com/boards/view.php?message=16908058 they came up with an estimate of 80% infection for the US based upon an R0 of 2.4. I have seen a couple of studies, still awaiting peer review, that placed that R0 significantly higher at 4.08 & 5.xx. But as noted in his article, given the massive publicity, people are likely to alter behavior significantly, so I'll guesstimate a lower national infection rate, assuming we open the country back up some, but many people still doing varying degrees of social distancing, wearing masks, washing hands, etc. 70% is a fairly reasonable guess over the course of a year or so, it seems to me, but anyone can substitute other numbers for comparison.
If 70% of NY state was infected, that would then result in 102,237 deaths in NY.
If 70% of the US were infected at that IFR it would result in 1,739,570 deaths.
Those are pretty sobering numbers.
Edited by JeffB at 17:32:51 on 04/26/20
Please explain why this message is being reported.
MESSAGE THREAD
Can't say b.o.a.t. on here? ;) If those infection rates are - JeffB MU - 4/26 17:24:03