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What I'm getting at is that you are estimating cases but

Posted on: January 25, 2021 at 22:34:48 CT
SparkyStalcup MU
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not estimating deaths. Yes, using actual cases and actual deaths will introduce a bit of endogeneity (we are testing all dead people but not all live people), but your case estimate is probably wildly overestimated as a denominator if you use actual deaths as a numerator. The real rate is probably at least a factor of 5 greater than your number.
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More than half of Missourians have already had Covid & - JeffB MU - 1/25 20:44:37
     "Lies, damned lies, and statistics." - tarheeltiger MU - 1/25 21:16:39
     where are you getting more than half? - fatrat MU - 1/25 20:54:38
          I only know a few who haven't had it - Bad Breath MU - 1/26 06:59:51
          RE: where are you getting more than half? - JeffB MU - 1/25 21:06:00
          He's using an incorrect infection fatality rate. Moreover, - SparkyStalcup MU - 1/25 21:04:17
               Link?(nm) - DollarSigns MU - 1/25 21:13:53
                    Here's the one he's probably referring to - SparkyStalcup MU - 1/25 21:16:55
                         I was going off of a CDC page from a few months or so - JeffB MU - 1/25 22:00:03
                              You're using an estimated number for cases, which likely - SparkyStalcup MU - 1/25 22:14:53
                                   That is how infection fatality rates have always been estima - JeffB MU - 1/25 22:27:39
                                        What I'm getting at is that you are estimating cases but - SparkyStalcup MU - 1/25 22:34:48
                                             "we are testing all dead people" - ummmm MU - 1/26 07:12:04
                                                  I figured someone might pick up on that. The problem is - SparkyStalcup MU - 1/26 08:16:18
                                                       I've seen papers claiming that the death rate is overstated. - JeffB MU - 1/26 12:20:30
               The study he is probably citing has a 1.15% infection - SparkyStalcup MU - 1/25 21:09:08




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