We'll see. We do have some advantages now over when

Posted on: June 23, 2020 at 22:28:29 CT

this first hit.

We've already built up some herd immunity, including among medical personnel. We've also had some time for the medical community to experiment with different treatments and treatment methods. We also have a lot more ventilators and experience in how to best use them, and far more of the PPE which was in short supply earlier in the year.

and, of course, we are no longer in the peak respiratory disease season.

Ideally, we would continue working to "flatten the curve" and in this instance that might mean easing restrictions to let more people develop natural immunity during the summer season. The more that develop it now the better it will be for us when the peak season does hit.

The number of new cases and number of new deaths have been dropping off naturally, undoubtedly aided by the fact that more people are developing immunity.

Using stats from the CDC it looks like Texas has a low death rate as measured by deaths/million, but that would translate to a prior infection/immunity rate of under 3%. They're just catching up to the rest of the country which is estimated to be over 14%.

The CDC was estimating that herd immunity would naturally control the spread once it reached 50% to 60% of the population. New York is already at almost 62%, New Jersey at over 56%, a couple of other states in the 40%+ range and on down the line. Missouri is at less than half of the national average at a little over 6% immunity rate estimated.

Again the goal is to flatten the curve and not let the medical system get overwhelmed. We seem to be doing that so far and have room to ease up on the restrictions and let nature take its course.