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If your model goes from 1 million, to 200k to 100k to 50k

Posted on: April 13, 2020 at 13:26:12 CT
Ragnar Danneskjold MU
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in a couple of weeks, it's likely your model was garbage to begin with.
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Wait, now MO is supposed to peak on 4/26/20 - Sal MU - 4/13 13:04:03
     I peaked last night - 615Tiger STL - 4/13 13:47:18
          did you forget to lotion yer hand? don't want it chapped(nm) - TigerFan92 MU - 4/13 14:29:01
     And it might go back to 5/18. Forecasting Techniques 101(nm) - miz_zou MU - 4/13 13:36:24
     Yeah, the models they are using change on the time... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:19:09
          do you support the gov and mayors' orders? (nm) - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:25:36
               I absolutely think the economy should not be re-opened... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:28:17
                    wow (nm) - pickle MU - 4/13 14:33:44
                    What does "the threat has passed" mean to you?(nm) - dangertim MU - 4/13 13:44:43
                    The threat won't pass until a vaccine is available - Sal MU - 4/13 13:28:52
                         not to mention a new vaccine is needed every year - ashtray UF - 4/13 13:45:42
                         So the only question... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:29:29
                              so you think the order should remain in place until there is - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:31:13
          and yet we're using those models as justification - dangertim MU - 4/13 13:25:02
               What do you suggest? - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:27:02
                    not to use faulty assumptions to destroy the economy. - dangertim MU - 4/13 13:28:16
                         So you're saying the modeling is unreliable... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:30:02
                    So if the data isn't reliable - Sal MU - 4/13 13:27:37
                         What else is there to do/use? - MrBlueSky MU - 4/13 13:29:52
                              Principles. (nm) - ummmm MU - 4/13 14:02:29
                              common sense and liberty-mindedness(nm) - MizzouAstro MU - 4/13 13:58:40
                              You seem to accept that with the current models lol (nm) - Sal MU - 4/13 13:30:38
                                   lol he's so dumb(nm) - Ragnar Danneskjold MU - 4/13 13:45:15
                                   They're based on the data in real time - MrBlueSky MU - 4/13 13:31:40
                                        He was thinking "model" as in tall Ukranian woman... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:34:31
                                        The data has been awful (nm) - Sal MU - 4/13 13:32:03
                                             That is a function - MrBlueSky MU - 4/13 13:32:30
                                                  And a lack of good data... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:33:46
                                                       Be that as it may, if the data is bad and the resulting - ummmm MU - 4/13 14:03:51
                                                       So you both are admitting the data is terrible - Sal MU - 4/13 13:34:22
                                                            Oh Sal, first of all, you still haven't answered... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:35:51
                                                                 you didn't answer mine (nm) - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:43:40
                                                                 I answered it (nm) - Sal MU - 4/13 13:37:23
                                                                      Link?(nm) - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:38:55
                                                                           I said I don't agree with any shelter in place orders - Sal MU - 4/13 13:43:04
                                                  lmfao you are dumb as f*** (nm) - Sal MU - 4/13 13:33:45
                                                       How is it not? (nm) - MrBlueSky MU - 4/13 13:34:14
                              Trumpian level free stylin'... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:30:35
                         Great point...what should they use? - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:28:55
                              What are Trump's metrics? - Sal MU - 4/13 13:30:23
                                   Not sure, he pointed to his head when asked...remember? - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:31:05
     It's almost like they don't really have much confidence - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:06:13
          Or it's almost like they adjust the model when they get new - SparkyStalcup MU - 4/13 13:18:34
               If your model goes from 1 million, to 200k to 100k to 50k - Ragnar Danneskjold MU - 4/13 13:26:12
               and we used the models from 2 weeks ago to shut down - dangertim MU - 4/13 13:25:32
               Yet always seem to skew thoughts to a worst case scenario - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:19:30
          I think it is nearly impossible to predict and project the - hokie VT - 4/13 13:09:38
               I am sympathetic as well - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:12:41
                    Maybe michigan. But maybe not. And if trump is wrong and - hokie VT - 4/13 13:20:20
                         I am with you, and I am so thankful we have a businessman - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:27:27
                              Agree. I just don't know where the line is between safe and - hokie VT - 4/13 13:29:14
                                   Totally agree with that - and caution is good - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:36:37
                                        what's the next phase? - ashtray UF - 4/13 13:41:47
                                             I am not sure the economy is a screwed as some think - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:49:19
                                                  I'm less concerned about the economy and more - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 14:03:35
                                                       I see them as one and the same - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 14:04:49
                                                            yeah, I get that, but saying economy makes it easier - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 14:11:47
                                                  every pillar wasn't really all that strong - ashtray UF - 4/13 14:00:56
                                                       There was an interest rate bubble from holding them down for - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 14:04:01
                                                            China's lockdown was all it took - ashtray UF - 4/13 14:51:16
          it’s almost like it’s all about control (nm) - pickle MU - 4/13 13:07:45
          Neither does Fauci - Sal MU - 4/13 13:07:28
     It's almost like as more data becomes available - Da_Haze KC - 4/13 13:05:43
          then why didn't they wait for more accurate info before - dangertim MU - 4/13 13:26:10
          Hey pal... that's not how the TB - mizzoumurfkc KC - 4/13 13:17:50
               do you support the gov and mayors' orders? (nm) - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:18:50
                    I don't like any of it... - mizzoumurfkc KC - 4/13 13:32:13
                         deference to authority - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:38:09
          One doesn’t have to be a rocket scientist to see the number - tigerNkc MU - 4/13 13:11:36
          or that model is just junk (nm) - Sal MU - 4/13 13:06:54
          do you support the MO stay at home order shutting down - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:06:38
               Since I can't ban non essential county to county travel - Da_Haze KC - 4/13 13:09:34
                    it's not rampant in KC(nm) - dangertim MU - 4/13 13:26:55
                    COVID isn't running rampant in KC (nm) - Sal MU - 4/13 13:11:13
                    so what's the criteria for ending it? (nm) - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:10:43
                         What a silly question to ask - Da_Haze KC - 4/13 13:23:15
                              silly but then you answered it? - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:29:26
                              ok, missouri's healthcare won't be overran. Open it up?(nm) - dangertim MU - 4/13 13:27:31
     BUT IT'S SCIENCE! (nm) - hefeweizen MU - 4/13 13:05:18
          It's political science. nm - hokie VT - 4/13 13:06:05
               Yes. Trump and his advisers are deliberately tanking - Da_Haze KC - 4/13 13:07:38
                    Of course hazel. Off you go. nm - hokie VT - 4/13 13:10:17
               It's political(nm) - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:07:31
     weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee(nm) - Ragnar Danneskjold MU - 4/13 13:04:28




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