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I think it is nearly impossible to predict and project the

Posted on: April 13, 2020 at 13:09:38 CT

hokie VT

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extent, the speed and the destruction of the virus. Too many variables, too many things changing every day.

I am sympathetic to the errors of the modelers.

But i cannot shake the feeling that many of the mistakes, depending on who is doing the modeling, are not mistakes at all but pre conceived and pre ordained outcomes for which the model was fed data to achieve the desired "projection".

Please explain why this message is being reported.

REPLY

MESSAGE THREAD

Wait, now MO is supposed to peak on 4/26/20 - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:04:03

I peaked last night - 615Tiger STL - 4/13 13:47:18

did you forget to lotion yer hand? don't want it chapped(nm) - TigerFan92 MU - 4/13 14:29:01

And it might go back to 5/18. Forecasting Techniques 101(nm) - miz_zou MU - 4/13 13:36:24

Yeah, the models they are using change on the time... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:19:09

do you support the gov and mayors' orders? (nm) - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:25:36

I absolutely think the economy should not be re-opened... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:28:17

wow (nm) - pickle MU

- 4/13 14:33:44

What does "the threat has passed" mean to you?(nm) - dangertim MU

- 4/13 13:44:43

The threat won't pass until a vaccine is available - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:28:52

not to mention a new vaccine is needed every year - ashtray UF - 4/13 13:45:42

So the only question... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:29:29

so you think the order should remain in place until there is - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:31:13

and yet we're using those models as justification - dangertim MU

- 4/13 13:25:02

What do you suggest? - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:27:02

not to use faulty assumptions to destroy the economy. - dangertim MU

- 4/13 13:28:16

So you're saying the modeling is unreliable... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:30:02

So if the data isn't reliable - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:27:37

What else is there to do/use? - MrBlueSky MU - 4/13 13:29:52

Principles. (nm) - ummmm MU - 4/13 14:02:29

common sense and liberty-mindedness(nm) - MizzouAstro MU

- 4/13 13:58:40

You seem to accept that with the current models lol (nm) - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:30:38

lol he's so dumb(nm) - Ragnar Danneskjold MU

- 4/13 13:45:15

They're based on the data in real time - MrBlueSky MU - 4/13 13:31:40

He was thinking "model" as in tall Ukranian woman... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:34:31

The data has been awful (nm) - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:32:03

That is a function - MrBlueSky MU - 4/13 13:32:30

And a lack of good data... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:33:46

Be that as it may, if the data is bad and the resulting - ummmm MU - 4/13 14:03:51

So you both are admitting the data is terrible - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:34:22

Oh Sal, first of all, you still haven't answered... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:35:51

you didn't answer mine (nm) - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:43:40

I answered it (nm) - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:37:23

Link?(nm) - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:38:55

I said I don't agree with any shelter in place orders - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:43:04

lmfao you are dumb as f*** (nm) - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:33:45

How is it not? (nm) - MrBlueSky MU - 4/13 13:34:14

Trumpian level free stylin'... - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:30:35

Great point...what should they use? - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:28:55

What are Trump's metrics? - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:30:23

Not sure, he pointed to his head when asked...remember? - Gyro MU - 4/13 13:31:05

It's almost like they don't really have much confidence - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:06:13

Or it's almost like they adjust the model when they get new - SparkyStalcup MU - 4/13 13:18:34

If your model goes from 1 million, to 200k to 100k to 50k - Ragnar Danneskjold MU

- 4/13 13:26:12

and we used the models from 2 weeks ago to shut down - dangertim MU

- 4/13 13:25:32

Yet always seem to skew thoughts to a worst case scenario - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:19:30

I think it is nearly impossible to predict and project the - hokie VT - 4/13 13:09:38

I am sympathetic as well - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:12:41

Maybe michigan. But maybe not. And if trump is wrong and - hokie VT - 4/13 13:20:20

I am with you, and I am so thankful we have a businessman - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:27:27

Agree. I just don't know where the line is between safe and - hokie VT - 4/13 13:29:14

Totally agree with that - and caution is good - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:36:37

what's the next phase? - ashtray UF - 4/13 13:41:47

I am not sure the economy is a screwed as some think - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:49:19

I'm less concerned about the economy and more - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 14:03:35

I see them as one and the same - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 14:04:49

yeah, I get that, but saying economy makes it easier - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 14:11:47

every pillar wasn't really all that strong - ashtray UF - 4/13 14:00:56

There was an interest rate bubble from holding them down for - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 14:04:01

China's lockdown was all it took - ashtray UF - 4/13 14:51:16

it’s almost like it’s all about control (nm) - pickle MU

- 4/13 13:07:45

Neither does Fauci - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:07:28

It's almost like as more data becomes available - Da_Haze KC - 4/13 13:05:43

then why didn't they wait for more accurate info before - dangertim MU

- 4/13 13:26:10

Hey pal... that's not how the TB - mizzoumurfkc KC - 4/13 13:17:50

do you support the gov and mayors' orders? (nm) - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:18:50

I don't like any of it... - mizzoumurfkc KC - 4/13 13:32:13

deference to authority - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:38:09

One doesn’t have to be a rocket scientist to see the number - tigerNkc MU

- 4/13 13:11:36

or that model is just junk (nm) - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:06:54

do you support the MO stay at home order shutting down - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:06:38

Since I can't ban non essential county to county travel - Da_Haze KC - 4/13 13:09:34

it's not rampant in KC(nm) - dangertim MU

- 4/13 13:26:55

COVID isn't running rampant in KC (nm) - Sal MU

- 4/13 13:11:13

so what's the criteria for ending it? (nm) - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:10:43

What a silly question to ask - Da_Haze KC - 4/13 13:23:15

silly but then you answered it? - SwampTiger MU - 4/13 13:29:26

ok, missouri's healthcare won't be overran. Open it up?(nm) - dangertim MU

- 4/13 13:27:31

BUT IT'S SCIENCE! (nm) - hefeweizen MU

- 4/13 13:05:18

It's political science. nm - hokie VT - 4/13 13:06:05

Yes. Trump and his advisers are deliberately tanking - Da_Haze KC - 4/13 13:07:38

Of course hazel. Off you go. nm - hokie VT - 4/13 13:10:17

It's political(nm) - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 4/13 13:07:31

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee(nm) - Ragnar Danneskjold MU

- 4/13 13:04:28

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