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I know what will get us over the hump and into the playoffs
Posted on: December 25, 2024 at 09:34:34 CT
mattieo86 MU
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we need some nil money and to move our recruiting up just a bit. Check out this post from someone from the rant…
In the first 4 playoff games, three of them were between a team who's blue chip ratio (measuring the percentage of their team that are 4 or 5 stars) below 50% and a team that was above 50%.
Since recruiting rankings have existed, no team below 50% for their blue chip ratio has ever won a national title. The reality is that the teams below 50% have no shot in a 3-4 game playoff scenario.
Indiana was below 50%. ND was above 50%. ND won.
SMU was below 50%. PSU was above 50%. PSU won.
Tennessee was below 50%. OSU was above 50%. OSU won.
Some people might be surprised by that one... but while Tennessee rides the coat tails of the big name SEC teams, they don't have the same degree of talent. They have 41 blue chips. 43 is needed to be above the blue chip line.
Clemson and Texas was the only match up between two teams above the 50% blue chip ratio line. And it was the most interesting game to watch (even though the ND/Indiana game was closer on the score board, that was due to late scores, not the game ever having any doubt late)
There are two more games involving teams sub 50% on the blue chip ratio. I don't expect either to be good games. PSU vs BSU and Texas vs ASU.
But other than that the rest of the games will likely be entertaining to watch.
Having matchups between teams that lack enough talent to win a title and those who have enough talent... especially when the more talented team is at home... are going to result in blowouts.
The more talented team won't always win. But those without ENOUGH talent have no chance to win the 3-4 games in a row they'd need to win a championship.
In the end... it is all about the talent.
Next post….
quote:
Tennessee made the playoffs and had double digit wins and is struggling to keep up with dumpster fire Florida on the trail
They aren't keeping up with UF at all.
UF is one of the teams above the 50% blue chip line. They had 52 blue chips this year. Their issue isn't talent. It's coaching. The fact they were one of the 15 teams with enough talent to win the national title this year DESPITE Napier is why that job has so much value.
Auburn is above that line too... barely. They had 43 this year.
Teams like Mizzou (29), Ole Miss (30), SC (30) and yes Tennessee (41) simply aren't there. They don't have the horses. They might make the playoff but they'll be like Indiana or ASU. A "happy to be there" team unless the face another similarly talented team in the first round.
SMU had 25 blue chips... not that different from SC or Ole Miss or Mizzou.
ASU has 18.
Indiana had 10.
BSU has 2.
Compare that to UGA (69), OSU (69), Texas (61), Oregon (56), ND (58) or PSU (51).
Yes PSU had less talent than UF. UF needs to find a better coach.
Next post…
Makes a lot of sense. Let's say Alabama did get in over Indiana or SMU, would they have performed substantially better since they are one of the highest blue chip ratio teams?
They would have had a shot.
The blue chip ratio isn't something where the team with the better ratio wins. It's more a minimum level of talent needed to win a title.
Bama EASILY has that level of talent with 67 blue chips. But for comparison... so did Florida (52), Auburn (43) and FSU (44). It doesn't mean you're going to win a title or even be good if you have that talent. It simply means that if your coach does a good enough job, you CAN win a title. Below that level you simply cannot.
A bad coach or a coach who lost their team is still going to put a poor product on the field. A bad QB can torpedo an otherwise talented team. But the reality is at the start of the season there were only 15 teams with a legitimate chance to win a national title.
6 of the last 8 teams are from that original group of 15.
I expect all of the final 4 will be.
In the first 4 playoff games, three of them were between a team who's blue chip ratio (measuring the percentage of their team that are 4 or 5 stars) below 50% and a team that was above 50%.
Since recruiting rankings have existed, no team below 50% for their blue chip ratio has ever won a national title. The reality is that the teams below 50% have no shot in a 3-4 game playoff scenario.
Indiana was below 50%. ND was above 50%. ND won.
SMU was below 50%. PSU was above 50%. PSU won.
Tennessee was below 50%. OSU was above 50%. OSU won.
Some people might be surprised by that one... but while Tennessee rides the coat tails of the big name SEC teams, they don't have the same degree of talent. They have 41 blue chips. 43 is needed to be above the blue chip line.
Clemson and Texas was the only match up between two teams above the 50% blue chip ratio line. And it was the most interesting game to watch (even though the ND/Indiana game was closer on the score board, that was due to late scores, not the game ever having any doubt late)
There are two more games involving teams sub 50% on the blue chip ratio. I don't expect either to be good games. PSU vs BSU and Texas vs ASU.
But other than that the rest of the games will likely be entertaining to watch.
Having matchups between teams that lack enough talent to win a title and those who have enough talent... especially when the more talented team is at home... are going to result in blowouts.
The more talented team won't always win. But those without ENOUGH talent have no chance to win the 3-4 games in a row they'd need to win a championship.
In the end... it is all about the talent.
Next post….
quote:
Tennessee made the playoffs and had double digit wins and is struggling to keep up with dumpster fire Florida on the trail
They aren't keeping up with UF at all.
UF is one of the teams above the 50% blue chip line. They had 52 blue chips this year. Their issue isn't talent. It's coaching. The fact they were one of the 15 teams with enough talent to win the national title this year DESPITE Napier is why that job has so much value.
Auburn is above that line too... barely. They had 43 this year.
Teams like Mizzou (29), Ole Miss (30), SC (30) and yes Tennessee (41) simply aren't there. They don't have the horses. They might make the playoff but they'll be like Indiana or ASU. A "happy to be there" team unless the face another similarly talented team in the first round.
SMU had 25 blue chips... not that different from SC or Ole Miss or Mizzou.
ASU has 18.
Indiana had 10.
BSU has 2.
Compare that to UGA (69), OSU (69), Texas (61), Oregon (56), ND (58) or PSU (51).
Yes PSU had less talent than UF. UF needs to find a better coach.
Next post…
Makes a lot of sense. Let's say Alabama did get in over Indiana or SMU, would they have performed substantially better since they are one of the highest blue chip ratio teams?
They would have had a shot.
The blue chip ratio isn't something where the team with the better ratio wins. It's more a minimum level of talent needed to win a title.
Bama EASILY has that level of talent with 67 blue chips. But for comparison... so did Florida (52), Auburn (43) and FSU (44). It doesn't mean you're going to win a title or even be good if you have that talent. It simply means that if your coach does a good enough job, you CAN win a title. Below that level you simply cannot.
A bad coach or a coach who lost their team is still going to put a poor product on the field. A bad QB can torpedo an otherwise talented team. But the reality is at the start of the season there were only 15 teams with a legitimate chance to win a national title.
6 of the last 8 teams are from that original group of 15.
I expect all of the final 4 will be.
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I know what will get us over the hump and into the playoffs - mattieo86 MU - 12/25 09:34:34
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