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All models are wrong - some are useful

Posted on: April 9, 2020 at 15:42:58 CT

KC rules MU

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That's true for about anything we attempt to model. The one assumption in early models was that Americans would shun social distancing. That hasn't happened. That said, at what point do current models stop? what is the duration? How far do they go out in time? To me, that's the bigger question. The Spanish Flu hit hard and a few months later after a lull in cases and deaths hit even harder. Without an immunized population CV19 is likely to follow the same course.

Edited by KC rules at 15:43:55 on 04/09/20

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The US currently has about 1/3 of the world’s cases but only - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 14:39:28

Lag time - KC rules MU - 4/9 14:46:38

Nothing to do with that. Simple answer? We test more(nm) - tigerNkc MU

- 4/9 15:05:41

Really? This says differently. - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:13:47

tests per million has zippo to do with total tests performed - Spanky KU - 4/9 16:43:39

I guess maybe fewer places of high density? More space to - tigerNkc MU

- 4/9 15:16:13

I have been saying for days that population density will - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:20:19

SF has 10 deaths and 724 cases.. their population density - Spanky KU - 4/9 17:49:03

But wouldn’t lag time affect both those numbers? We were - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:02:28

RE: But wouldn’t lag time affect both those numbers? We were - KC rules MU - 4/9 15:13:06

You put a lot of trust in models that have been horribly - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:19:04

The "models" are not "inaccurate". The models are simply - *M* KC - 4/9 15:37:08

All models are wrong - some are useful - KC rules MU - 4/9 15:42:58

Not at all - KC rules MU - 4/9 15:28:39

RE: The US currently has about 1/3 of the world’s cases but only - *M* KC - 4/9 14:44:05

If we have 1/3 or the total cases and only 1/6 of the deaths - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:04:26

Your assumption is that confirmed tests - meatiger MU - 4/9 15:06:30

We are counting everything related to Covid or looking like - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:10:40

RE: We are counting everything related to Covid or looking like - meatiger MU - 4/9 15:12:11

And my point was if there were an error on our part it would - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:26:33

RE: If we have 1/3 or the total cases and only 1/6 of the deaths - *M* KC - 4/9 15:05:04

Sorry, I got the first part of your statement but misread - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:07:33

RE: Sorry, I got the first part of your statement but misread - *M* KC - 4/9 15:13:58

Not ours but in Europe. Their systems have been - DHighlander NWMSU - 4/9 15:30:05

The smartest epidemiologist in the United States in January: - ummmm MU - 4/9 15:21:48

Yup. even the world's leading experts are sometimes - *M* KC - 4/9 15:28:13

But Dr. Fauci is definitely right now. (nm) - ummmm MU - 4/9 15:28:56

I don't remember saying that. Is that what you think? - *M* KC - 4/9 15:34:16

I'm relying on an opinion of an epidemiologist too: - ummmm MU - 4/9 16:38:33

Both sides will find their evidence - meatiger MU - 4/9 15:13:34

um, it's a virus. it's not going to be eradicated. I'm goin - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 14:47:37

How ‘bout polio? - Emoji Man MSU - 4/9 15:26:10

We managed to essentially eradicate Smallpox which is indeed - KC rules MU - 4/9 14:53:12

Just wait till the ChiComs release weaponized smallpox - Uncle Fester USMC - 4/9 15:03:10

RE: We managed to essentially eradicate Smallpox which is indeed - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:00:36

RE: We managed to essentially eradicate Smallpox which is indeed - *M* KC - 4/9 15:07:36

lol, yeah - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:08:48

Smallpox exists in governmental labs all over the world - Bulldog Bob Brown STL - 4/9 15:04:10

You've heard of the smallpox virus, I presume. - *M* KC - 4/9 14:52:19

and i'm also noting you didn't deny my assertion. I'm - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:06:32

And I'm noticing that as usual. - *M* KC - 4/9 15:17:11

i was and remain totally dead right about this and you're - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:19:49

RE: i was and remain totally dead right about this and you're - *M* KC - 4/9 15:32:26

I support social distancing too, and the hospital capacity i - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 16:12:38

yeah, it's the only time in history it's happened. good luc - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:01:35

Eradicated? That will likely never happen. (nm) - ummmm MU - 4/9 14:45:33

probably not, but not impossible. - *M* KC - 4/9 14:50:15

The vast majority of people will clear this infection on - ummmm MU - 4/9 14:56:05

RE: The vast majority of people will clear this infection on - *M* KC - 4/9 14:58:53

hiding people from the virus will increase chances - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:17:40

as I indicated above, you're totally lost on all of this - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:17:03

Epidemiologists don't focus on eradication, so I don't - ummmm MU - 4/9 15:03:43

RE: Epidemiologists don't focus on eradication, so I don't - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 15:18:57

The biggest reason we would have a worse 2nd wave - meatiger MU - 4/9 15:01:34

Oh yeah? Just wait till the Bill Gates Vaccine of Death - Uncle Fester USMC - 4/9 14:49:22

US tests more - meatiger MU - 4/9 14:42:58

Among many other things(nm) - meatiger MU - 4/9 14:43:16

check your premise (nm) - 90Tiger STL - 4/9 14:40:17

I'm coming up with 17% of the deaths, ~ 29% of the cases. (nm) - JeffB MU

- 4/9 15:20:07

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