"Trump Is Winning the Polls—And Losing the Nomination"
Posted on: October 24, 2018 at 13:25:58 CT
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Donald Trump Is Winning the Polls—And Losing the Nomination
August 11, 2015
At FiveThirtyEight, however, we’re fairly agnostic about what will happen to Trump’s polling in the near term. It’s possible that he’s already peaked — or that he’ll hold his support all the way through Iowa and New Hampshire, possibly even winning one or two early states, as similar candidates like Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich have in the past. Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.