I feel like the talent is better than last year, so we wouldn't be in that many close games to go back to the mean.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/45813903/ranking-136-fbs-college-football-teams-tiers-2025
TL;DR
Tier 8: Regression to the mean (the bad kind) (five teams)
BYU
Duke
Missouri
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
This group of teams won 32 games against Power 4 opponents last season. Twenty-four of those wins (75%) came by a touchdown or less.
Missouri and Duke each won four games in which they trailed in the fourth quarter.
BYU and Syracuse each were tied or trailing in the fourth quarter seven times. Each went 6-1.
Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt.
If you look up and down the list of luck-influenced metrics, these teams raise more red flags than Kanye's Bumble profile.
Perhaps these guys all fend off the fickle college football gods for another year, but if the "Final Destination" movies have taught us anything, it's that Ali Larter should be in more movies. But if there's another thing they taught us, it's that you can only avoid a disastrous fate for so long.
Edited by tcat at 06:42:22 on 08/08/25