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Thanks, but that's not really based upon real votes. It is
Posted on: October 26, 2024 at 18:07:12 CT
JeffB MU
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partial data from some states regarding percentages of registered voters who were registered for one party or another that have already voted.
Your interpretation of that partial info from some states is fairly reasonable, but is based on assumptions that may or may not hold. You mentioned some of those assumptions, another is that early voting favors Democrats. That may or may not hold this election. A lot of things have changed. A lot of people are changing affiliations, or are not voting for the candidate their party put forward in this election.
Another assumption is that the Democrats' ground game will make a significant difference in vote totals vis-à-vis polling numbers. That assumption was proven very wrong in the 2016 election and probably very wrong in the 2020 election, unless by "ground game" you mean the shenanigans in the heavily Democratic strongholds during the ballot collection and vote counting.
All of those assumptions add further risk in evaluating the ramifications of the partial information at hand.
I would also say that the key information is is with respect to the potential swing states where the outcome may be in question. Of the info on the 3 key swing states you mentioned, I would rate those results as heavily favoring Republicans in two of them and ambiguous in the 3rd.
In Nv - 29,000 more republicans have voted than democrats but NV has 60,000 more registered democrats
In NC - 32,000 more republicans have voted than dems, but there are 120,000 more registered dems in that State
Those results seem to heavily favor the Republicans.
If far there are far more registered Democrats in those two states, but far more registered Republicans have voted, that may well portend an even higher percentage of Republicans voting this election cycle than registered Democrats. It is obviously saying that much higher percentage of Republicans are early voting there so far.
in Georgia- over half of all the people who voted in 2020 have already voted.
I'm not really sure that gives us much of an indication at all as to who those votes favor.
Your interpretation of that partial info from some states is fairly reasonable, but is based on assumptions that may or may not hold. You mentioned some of those assumptions, another is that early voting favors Democrats. That may or may not hold this election. A lot of things have changed. A lot of people are changing affiliations, or are not voting for the candidate their party put forward in this election.
Another assumption is that the Democrats' ground game will make a significant difference in vote totals vis-à-vis polling numbers. That assumption was proven very wrong in the 2016 election and probably very wrong in the 2020 election, unless by "ground game" you mean the shenanigans in the heavily Democratic strongholds during the ballot collection and vote counting.
All of those assumptions add further risk in evaluating the ramifications of the partial information at hand.
I would also say that the key information is is with respect to the potential swing states where the outcome may be in question. Of the info on the 3 key swing states you mentioned, I would rate those results as heavily favoring Republicans in two of them and ambiguous in the 3rd.
In Nv - 29,000 more republicans have voted than democrats but NV has 60,000 more registered democrats
In NC - 32,000 more republicans have voted than dems, but there are 120,000 more registered dems in that State
Those results seem to heavily favor the Republicans.
If far there are far more registered Democrats in those two states, but far more registered Republicans have voted, that may well portend an even higher percentage of Republicans voting this election cycle than registered Democrats. It is obviously saying that much higher percentage of Republicans are early voting there so far.
in Georgia- over half of all the people who voted in 2020 have already voted.
I'm not really sure that gives us much of an indication at all as to who those votes favor.
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Thanks, but that's not really based upon real votes. It is - JeffB MU - 10/26 18:07:12