its based on actual votes

Posted on: October 26, 2024 at 17:27:04 CT

-some States report nothing
-some States report mail in ballots and early votes received but no party affiliation
-some States report mail in and early votes by registered party.

of those reporting by party democrats have a 4.5 point lead

-this assumes nonpartisan /independents are split 50/50
(they aren't)
AND that everyone votes by party (they won't but its
usually and even out thing-BUT this year more registered
republicans will likely not vote for the trump compared to registered dems who don't vote for Harris)

so in reality Harris no doubt has a greater than 4.5 point lead.


In Nv - 29,000 more republicans have voted than democrats but NV has 60,000 more registered democrats

In NC - 32,000 more republicans have voted than dems, but there are 120,000 more registered dems in that State

in Georgia- over half of all the people who voted in 2020 have already voted.

High turnout favors democrats (thats why republican are so keen on voter suppression)
AND the dems have a much better ground game

all signs point to the trump losing (at this point)