Look up some Col Douglas Macgregor interviews on youtube
Posted on: July 12, 2024 at 23:34:25 CT
JeffB
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He addresses that question, as do other military analysts.
Putin lived in Germany for some time and came to like the West. He had visions of a cooperation, a partnership even with the US & NATO after the wall came down and Russia relaxed its grip on its satellite nations. Western leaders had in fact been promoting that idea and the Russians took them at their word.
But the west reneged on their promises not to add any more NATO nations along Russia's borders. Instead, they added one after another, arming them with missiles that could be launched into Russia with 1st strike capabilities. Each time Russia protested, and did so more vehemently each time this happened.
I didn't realize what was going on at the time, but I remember Putin warning that western actions were going to lead to war. The west was backing Russia into a corner. With regards to Ukraine the CIA was active in instigating a coup against the democratically elected president who was friendly with Russia and put in the CIA's hand picked successor who was anti-Russian. They began persecuting the Russian population in eastern Ukraine, even firing rockets into their villages and cities. The Nazis in western Ukraine, who had a horrible relationship with Russia, obviously, given the many millions the Nazis killed in Russia in WWII... far more than any other allies suffered, were being favored more and more by the new US installed Ukraine regime. The US & NATO were not only in talks aimed at bringing Ukraine into NATO, but were bringing in weapons and doing large scale training of Ukrainian soldiers for combat with Russia. It even turned out that they had a bioweapons lab in Eastern Ukraine.
They all signed the Minsk agreements to halt the fighting, but Ukraine & the west violated them.
Putin misjudged NATO & Ukraine's intentions. The persecution of the eastern Ukrainians had been growing and Russia, feeling threatened stepped in with a relatively small force. They didn't want to destroy Ukrainian villages or cities, nor harm a lot of people. They considered Ukrainians to be a part of Russia, after all. They also apparently felt that the west would try and prevent a full scale war negotiate a peaceful settlement that would be amenable to all. But Putin discovered that they had no intention of negotiating. They *wanted* the conflict with Russia which they had been egging on for years. They wanted to weaken Russia with another quagmire somewhat analogous to what the US experienced in Vietnam & what Russia had experienced in Afghanistan.
It became a proxy war for the US & NATO. They supplied Ukraine with weapons and training and and intelligence, letting Ukraine suffer the casualties while doing the US' fighting for them. They promised Ukraine that NATO had their back and would build their country back better. They also made Zelenski a very wealthy man. Meanwhile US companies were poised to make a killing (economically) by buying up Ukraine land and mineral rights for a fraction of their true value.
Early on they inflicted heavy casualties on the Russians, sinking a ship and killing 5 of their generals with the weapons, training and intelligence supplied by the US & NATO. They were hoping to send a weakened, humiliated Russia running with their tails between their legs. They had frozen Russian assets held in western banks & thought the economic embargo & expense of the proxy war with the US & NATO would crumble their economy & force them to quit early.
Putin realized that this wasn't going to be the shot across the bow standoff to get the concessions he felt that Russia needed. This was going to be a full scale battle not against Ukraine, but a proxy war with the US & NATO with the Ukrainians being their dupes to carry it out and suffer the consequences.
Col Macgregor has maintained that Russia has been amazingly patient and prudent in his prosecution of this war. Some of this was undoubtedly to minimize casualties on the Russian side, but also to minimize damages to Ukraine and its people. The weather in Ukraine prevented Russia from any large scale invasion in the spring when Ukraine's land was deep mud that prevented sending in tanks & heavy artillery. Russia took its time calling in reserves and instituting a draft. This was going to be a much bigger battle than they had hoped for. They also ramped up production of military supplies and worked on alternative means of funding the war via selling oil and gas on the black market, and forming a closer relationship with China, Iran and others.
They were very patient in utilizing their advantage in longer range artillery, pounding the Ukrainians from afar. At one point Russia was killing Ukrainians at about a 9 to 1 ratio. They were content to let the Ukrainians attack their defensive positions and grind them down. They have successfully done so. The Ukrainian army has been depleted while the Russians have huge forces at the ready.
Some military analysts are saying that some generals in the Russian military command are encouraging Putin to go ahead and use their overwhelming advantage in numbers to march in and get this over with quickly. Putin, out of an abundance of caution, trying to minimize the probability of a full scale war with NATO and minimizing the casualties on both sides has continued the strategy of slow movements and letting the Ukrainians expend themselves in attacking the Russians in a counteroffensive that is costing them dearly. So far.
Considering Russia too weak to take Ukraine is a grave miscalculation. Some of those military analysts are saying that Russia is now on a high level production of weaponry and is much better prepared for a large scale war than Europe and the US are. The US does not have the will nor the manpower, nor the economic wherewithal for a large scale land war with Russia and its allies and that could quite easily lead to catastrophic nuclear exchanges.
It is long past the time to sit down at the negotiating table. The US & NATO have repudiated several prior attempts at peace talks initiated by Russia when the terms would have been far more favorable to Ukraine and the west. Ukraine was quite ready to do so, but the US & UK in particular goaded them into rejecting a peace agreement they had already tentatively worked out. It is easy for the warmongers in the west to push Ukraine into fighting to the last Ukrainian, but it is foolishness in the extreme.