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RE: The big challenge for the dems

Posted on: July 12, 2022 at 11:46:24 CT

*M* KC

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M.O.B. Votes:

Several thoughts:

(1) Biden will almost certainly end up not running. The party bosses will talk him out of it.

(2) Harris will flap her arms and make noise about running, but will ultimately decide not to, probably with a promise of something ridiculous like a SCOTUS nomination.

(3) Strong candidates sometimes appear from nowhere. See, e.g., Bill Clinton, Barack Obama. No one was referring to them as "bench strength" 2 years before they first were elected. The Dems will find someone competitive.

(4) If Trump runs it will excite *Trump's* base, which is very different from the historical GOP base. Trump has a very high floor, probably around 40% who will automatically vote for him no matter what he does. But he has a very low ceiling, probably 46-48%. Every day there are more independents out there who simply won't vote for him no matter who his opponent is. It would be very risky for the GOP to nominate him. For example, in the unlikely event Biden runs, Trump is probably the only Republican he could beat.

(5) The smart GOP move is to nominate DeSantis, who would be a strong candidate and should be heavily favored against any Democrat currently on the horizon.

Edited by *M* at 11:46:44 on 07/12/22

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The big challenge for the dems - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 7/12 11:22:39

RE: The big challenge for the dems - *M* KC - 7/12 11:46:24

Clinton and Obama were keynote speakers at - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 7/12 11:52:34

RE: Clinton and Obama were keynote speakers at - *M* KC - 7/12 11:57:26

I said below, and I am not advocating for it in any way - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 7/12 11:58:10

The only person of interest in the entire political world is - TrumpToRushmore MU - 7/12 11:40:45

And that is why for all the talk he is losing support - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 7/12 11:43:25

Trump is weak, and getting weaker. Biden beats Trump - SparkyStalcup MU - 7/12 11:38:52

Biden will not be running in 2024. He may not make his - ummmm MU - 7/12 11:46:35

Their strongest candidate is Tulsi - TIGERROAR MU - 7/12 11:35:33

She won't run as a Dem. Indy maybe or L(nm) - hefeweizen MU

- 7/12 11:52:47

And there are some on the right who see her as some - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 7/12 11:53:25

If she does run and says she knows what a man and a woman - hefeweizen MU

- 7/12 11:58:46

Not 100 percent certain but I think remember her saying - TIGERROAR MU - 7/12 12:03:24

Do you think the Hindu thing could be a real issue for her? - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 7/12 12:00:44

I would expect Newsom, Polis & Pritzker to run - Spanky KU - 7/12 11:33:43

They would be wise to push someone like Polis - Eggs MU - 7/12 11:37:17

Polis would be a great choice for the dems(nm) - El-ahrairah BAMA - 7/12 12:07:59

Couldn't win a primary. Not leftist enough (nm) - hefeweizen MU

- 7/12 11:53:42

While it is cool to say it won't matter - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 7/12 11:41:42

Governor Flintstone in Illinois wants to be the President - Fred G. Sanford USA - 7/12 11:35:18

Their specialty is emotional issues - Eggs MU - 7/12 11:26:10

Cuomo? He's not a factor. (nm) - hefeweizen MU

- 7/12 11:55:54

I'm afraid Bernie will run again and actually win(nm) - hefeweizen MU

- 7/12 11:25:11

nah. he’s too old (nm) - pickle MU

- 7/12 11:30:44

I don't think Bernie will run again. The party will never - SparkyStalcup MU - 7/12 11:40:26

well that’s one positive in their favor (nm) - pickle MU

- 7/12 11:44:01