Trump fatigue
Posted on: December 8, 2020 at 11:33:53 CT
Knucklehead MU
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One factor. The Trump strategy of constant aggitation via tweets starts to wear on people after a while.
Eventually many say "make it stop." One theory in 2016 was that Trump would become "more presidential" after he took office. In 2020 that was no longer a viable belief.
Most people that vote are very much locked into one party or the other. The "independent" voters that vary their choice from one election to another may have gotten tired of Trump's strategy of constant insults and provocations. I say may because I claim zero expertise in voter behavior.
Remember, Trump actually lost the popular vote by 3 million in 2016. He lost the popular vote by 7 million this time. A relatively small change. As the regular voters for both parties don't cross party lines anymore.
I think another factor is that Trump ran as an outsider that was going to reform Washington in 2016. As an incumbent that was no longer a viable tactic.
Another factor was the personality and gender of Trump's opponent. Hillary just isn't all that likable and her gender may have worked against her. Again I say may because I have no expertise in voter behavior. Biden has his own baggage but Biden successfully made the election about Trump's personality. It is somewhat plausible to argue that Trump's campaign walked right into that punch with its strategy of focusing on turning out Trump's base.
Edited by Knucklehead at 11:50:17 on 12/08/20