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It is a skewed universe

Posted on: March 12, 2020 at 09:34:40 CT

4TigersinMichigan MU

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M.O.B. Votes:

By its nature, only the worst cases will go to the hospital. Imagine sitting in a hospital ER and counting how many of those there were injured by car accident. You may then determine a very high percentage of those involved in car wrecks wind up in the ER. In reality, most car accidents are minor and do not lead to ER visits. But when your universe is not robust and comprehensive you cannot get good results.

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MESSAGE THREAD

Market down 1600----here we go again - mu7176grad MU - 3/12 08:33:04

I'm starting to get tempted to jump back in buying. - RHAYWORTH MU - 3/12 09:01:33

And a virus where we truly do not know the health impact - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:36:08

Some people call hospitalization a significant, serious - DC Jayhawk KU - 3/12 09:15:58

And for those who need hospitalization it is - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 09:18:53

I believe it's around 2-5% of afflicted - DC Jayhawk KU - 3/12 09:22:39

The entire point being at this time we don't have any - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 09:25:12

You don't have the entire universe - DC Jayhawk KU - 3/12 09:31:05

To say there aren't significant, serious impacts is foolish. - MrBlueSky MU - 3/12 09:35:04

It is a skewed universe - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 09:34:40

Share with me the last time a simple flu killed nursing home - raskolnikov MU - 3/12 08:52:06

Like you care? dems love to kill the elderly. - RHAYWORTH MU - 3/12 09:04:15

"Democrats LOVE to kill the elderly"(nm) - raskolnikov MU - 3/12 09:15:39

I didn't say it was a simple flu - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:53:16

Panic has taken hold---from mkts , to day to day interaction - mu7176grad MU - 3/12 08:39:54

What would you suggest? - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:41:21

Working on a profitable solution for big pharma. - glue MU - 3/12 08:56:03

I think the point is the division that has been prevalent - eatatjoes MU - 3/12 08:49:25

15.000 lies make credibility difficult - I was just REALLY - raskolnikov MU - 3/12 08:55:55

The division didn't start in 2016 - mizzouSECedes STL - 3/12 08:52:38

Which is why I said "several" years(nm) - eatatjoes MU - 3/12 08:54:34

That is a fair assessment - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:52:02

Both sides need to cool it(nm) - eatatjoes MU - 3/12 08:55:10

Agreed - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:55:35

Was it the right move?(nm) - meatiger MU - 3/12 08:54:07

Absolutely - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:55:08

It did very little - meatiger MU - 3/12 08:57:11

The majority of cases that showed up in the US - mizzouSECedes STL - 3/12 09:05:11

It undoubtedly slowed the rate of spread - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:59:06

There is zero proof of that - meatiger MU - 3/12 09:01:13

OK - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 09:02:59

We built an atomic bomb we can cure coronavirus - mu7176grad MU - 3/12 08:48:57

And the best and brightest here and globally are working - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:50:43

That's right, nuke the people that have coronavirus(nm) - mizzouSECedes STL - 3/12 08:49:50

Death is considered a serious effect - Da_Haze KC - 3/12 08:37:14

And there is no evidence this will have a significantly - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:38:38

The problem is - meatiger MU - 3/12 08:49:37

You bet it has - the panic is creating very real effects - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:54:24

Well - meatiger MU - 3/12 08:56:09

It is a big deal - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:57:48

I am not sure - meatiger MU - 3/12 08:59:52

A 2% death rate is fairly high - Da_Haze KC - 3/12 08:44:35

And at this point most all would agree we don't know - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:45:29

Correct. (nm) - tman MU - 3/12 08:46:04

why are stuck on mortality rate? - ashtray UF - 3/12 08:42:42

Because mortality rate is a key indicator of how serious - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:44:35

not everyone that goes to the hospital dies - ashtray UF - 3/12 08:46:17

But if fear can be alleviated with facts about the nature - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:48:19

when people can't breath they're going to the hospital - ashtray UF - 3/12 08:49:18

Understood - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 09:02:31

Seriously - meatiger MU - 3/12 09:11:36

Very few of those with the virus have trouble breathing - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 09:14:36

If a doctor is making a decision - meatiger MU - 3/12 09:16:31

Doctors are also subject to the lack of information - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 09:21:28

50% of cases in Italy have required hospitalization (nm) - ashtray UF - 3/12 09:09:05

And that would appear not to be the case elsewhere - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 09:15:20

Ashtray is giving you facts - meatiger MU - 3/12 09:17:23

Yes, but why are 50% in the hospital? - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 09:23:17

Given that the hospitals are overflowing - meatiger MU - 3/12 09:28:15

The overflow is almost certainly out of an abundance of - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 09:47:23

Same time, many don't need to go to the hospital - mizzouSECedes STL - 3/12 08:48:00

and those people won't go to the hospital - ashtray UF - 3/12 08:50:14

Take the medicine they already have - mizzouSECedes STL - 3/12 08:51:36

if it doesn't make it past your nose and throat - ashtray UF - 3/12 08:52:48

we need to mimic Mexico (nm) - Sal MU

- 3/12 08:47:17

12 cases in Mexico so far - ashtray UF - 3/12 08:48:42

eat the worm, bro (nm) - Sal MU

- 3/12 08:50:02

Did you walk around in public during H1N1? (nm) - Sal MU

- 3/12 08:38:35

Swine Flu had a mortality rate of 0.1% - Da_Haze KC - 3/12 08:43:40

It didnt intially(nm) - tman MU - 3/12 08:48:41

His point is that we eventually found that was the rate - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:46:15

Yes, those statistics are known after the pandemic - Sal MU

- 3/12 08:45:33

And why? Panic based on fear and perception rather than - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 3/12 08:49:12