WADR folks, Mizzou is not a great situation

Posted on: February 1, 2020 at 10:57:44 CT

Consider the following:

1. Great recognition and prestige in being an SEC member.

2. Tough competition in SEC.

a. If population is a proxy for the amount of football talent produced by a state, Missouri is fourth in population in SEC East, i.e. Florida - approx. 20 million, Georgia - approx. 10 million, Tenn. - approx. 6.8 million, Missouri - approx. 6.2 million, Kentucky and South Carolina - approx. 4 to 5 million. And Missouri has very low population growth rate.

b. If resources make a difference, i.e. recruiting budget, Mizzou is in the bottom third in SEC public schools in AD revenue and football budget. The difference is substantial, i.e. Tiger football has a budget of about 24 million while Georgia, Tennessee and Florida are 40+ million.

3. Tiger football is not the number one sports story in either St. Louis (baseball Cardinals) or Kansas City (NFL Chiefs).

4. Mizzou's academics are okay, but not great, i.e. a second tier national public university (roughly around 100 in the most recent U.S. News rankings). Some surveys of recruits indicate that academics are a close second to the coaching staff as a reason for a recruit to select a particular school.

5. A history of criticism for Mizzou's/Columbia's treatment of minorities. I.e. "Little Dixie", 1940's Supreme Court decision on admission of minority student to Law School, 1970's criticism in the St. Louis media, 2015 student demonstration and player boycott, etc. No, opposing recruiters never mention any of these, the SEC guys don't engage in negative recruiting.

6. Not being a "storied program" with a history of success:

a. Last conference championship was the Big 8 in 1969.

b. An Orange Bowl bid in 1969 and a couple of Cotton Bowls under Pinkel are it for "big bowl" appearances.

c. Haven't won more than four games in the SE conference since 2014.

d. Giving up a total of 101 points in the 2013 and 2014 SEC Title games.

e. Haven't won more than four SEC games in a season since 2014.

7. A history of firing coaches, i.e. since Dan Devine left for the Packers following the 1970 season, Onofrio, Powers, Woody, Stull, Smith and Odom. Only Pinkle left on his on accord and there's some question about that.

Bottom line is Drinkwitz will have his abilities severely tested over the next several years. Fortunately, most surveys/studies of why recruits choose a program place the coaching staff as the number one reason. If Drinkwitz has the qualities described by a number of posters, he's got a shot at being reasonably successful, i.e. consistently going unbeaten in the nonconference schedule and .500, perhaps a game or two better, in the SEC. I'd say the odds are 50-50. Considering six of the last seven coaches were fired, that's almost a ringing endorsement.