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WBB back to the 5 seed line today...
Posted on: March 13, 2019 at 10:59:17 CT
bluetiger_ MU
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in ESPN bracketology. Kentucky replaced us as the 5 seed that got procedurally bumped to a 6 seed in the bracket. This may go back and forth a little, and while the ESPN guy usually does very well on projecting the at large bids, the seeding and regional placement is going to be a little different when the bracket is announced Monday night.
Right now the projected 4 seeds are TAMU, SC, Iowa St, and Oregon St. So we need the selection committee to put us in ahead of one of those teams in order to get a home regional. We don’t compare well to Iowa St or SC on the metrics the committee is known to use, but I’m not giving up hope that we could supplant Oregon St or TAMU. Using the RPI from today and RPI data from yesterday (which won’t change much before Monday), here is how we compare to those 2 teams.
Mizzou
23-10, RPI rank 31, SOS/NCSOS 27/64, 3-3 against top 25, 2-3 against 26-50, 6-3 against 51-100. Best wins against 8 Miss St, 17 TAMU, 22 Kentucky. Worst loss 214 Florida.
TAMU
24-7, RPI 17, SOS 26/31, 3-3 against top 25, 3-1 against 26-50, 5-3 against 51-100. Best wins against 22 Kentucky (twice), 24 Oregon St. Worst loss 87 LSU.
Oregon State
24-7, RPI 24, SOS 75/194, 2-6 against top 25, 4-0 against top 26-50, 6-0 against 51-100. Best wins against 5 Oregon, 19 SC. Worst loss 134 Washington.
I don’t think it’s impossible to get a 4 seed over TAMU, our SOS is identical, although their non conference SOS is better, we both have 3 top 25 wins, ours are better than theirs, and we won the head to head meeting with them.
I think we compare even better with Oregon State. Not as much difference in RPI rank, our SOS is far better than theirs, we have 3 top 25 wins to their 2, and our best win over Miss St is just as good as their best win over Oregon. They also have an awful 100+ RPI loss on their resume, like us.
So I think there still could be some drama at the selection show get together at Mizzou Arena Monday night. Not losing hope yet. If we end up a 5 seed I’d rather play OSU than Iowa St.
Right now the projected 4 seeds are TAMU, SC, Iowa St, and Oregon St. So we need the selection committee to put us in ahead of one of those teams in order to get a home regional. We don’t compare well to Iowa St or SC on the metrics the committee is known to use, but I’m not giving up hope that we could supplant Oregon St or TAMU. Using the RPI from today and RPI data from yesterday (which won’t change much before Monday), here is how we compare to those 2 teams.
Mizzou
23-10, RPI rank 31, SOS/NCSOS 27/64, 3-3 against top 25, 2-3 against 26-50, 6-3 against 51-100. Best wins against 8 Miss St, 17 TAMU, 22 Kentucky. Worst loss 214 Florida.
TAMU
24-7, RPI 17, SOS 26/31, 3-3 against top 25, 3-1 against 26-50, 5-3 against 51-100. Best wins against 22 Kentucky (twice), 24 Oregon St. Worst loss 87 LSU.
Oregon State
24-7, RPI 24, SOS 75/194, 2-6 against top 25, 4-0 against top 26-50, 6-0 against 51-100. Best wins against 5 Oregon, 19 SC. Worst loss 134 Washington.
I don’t think it’s impossible to get a 4 seed over TAMU, our SOS is identical, although their non conference SOS is better, we both have 3 top 25 wins, ours are better than theirs, and we won the head to head meeting with them.
I think we compare even better with Oregon State. Not as much difference in RPI rank, our SOS is far better than theirs, we have 3 top 25 wins to their 2, and our best win over Miss St is just as good as their best win over Oregon. They also have an awful 100+ RPI loss on their resume, like us.
So I think there still could be some drama at the selection show get together at Mizzou Arena Monday night. Not losing hope yet. If we end up a 5 seed I’d rather play OSU than Iowa St.
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WBB back to the 5 seed line today... - bluetiger_ MU - 3/13 10:59:17