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Taxes and migration
Posted on: February 14, 2019 at 14:34:05 CT
Badird MU
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I doubt anyone still cares, but now that I had some time, I parsed through data to see whether or not I was incorrect that there is not a correlation between State + Local tax rates and population change.
Data used for all states (including D.C.) for "Effective Total State and Local Tax Rates on Median US Household": (https://wallethub.com/edu/best-worst-states-to-be-a-taxpayer/2416/)
Data used for population change over 8 years, from 2010 to 2017 (https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/geo/chart/US/PST120217)
I copied the data to Excel and graphed it. Turns out there is a slight correlation (r^2=.2559) between these figures. However, you cannot put much confidence in such an errant correlation. Because of this, I would attribute other variables (such as weather) to be a much bigger factor in migration between states rather than tax data. It remains possible that state and local tax rate have no effect on migration. More likely is the idea that that tax rates are a factor for some people, which is why the regression line isnt closer to zero.
Id also point out the error in the local and state tax information, as this site had different information than TaxFoundation.org, but I did the best I could without spending much time.
Feel free to graph it yourself. Here is the data I used:
State Combined Tax Rate Population Growth
Alabama 9.40% 2
Alaska 5.67% 4.2
Arizona 9.50% 9.8
Arkansas 12.30% 3
California (b) 8.77% 6.1
Colorado 9.27% 11.5
Connecticut 13.85% 0.4
Delaware 6.11% 7.1
Florida 8.83% 11.6
Georgia 10.54% 7.6
Hawaii (c) 10.33% 4.9
Idaho 8.48% 9.5
Illinois 14.89% -0.2
Indiana 11.86% 2.8
Iowa 12.92% 3.2
Kansas 12.42% 2.1
Kentucky 12.06% 2.6
Louisiana 10.39% 3.3
Maine 11.75% 0.6
Maryland 11.96% 4.8
Massachusetts 11.61% 4.8
Michigan 12.81% 0.8
Minnesota 11.57% 5.1
Mississippi 12.21% 0.5
Missouri 11.28% 2.1
Montana (d) 7.29% 6.2
Nebraska 13.83% 5.1
Nevada 7.44% 11
New Hampshire 10.27% 2
New Jersey (e) 12.87% 2.4
New Mexico (c) 10.82% 1.4
New York 13.72% 2.4
North Carolina 10.64% 7.7
North Dakota 9.84% 12.3
Ohio 13.09% 1.1
Oklahoma 10.75% 4.8
Oregon 9.20% 8.1
Pennsylvania 12.45% 0.8
Rhode Island 13.69% 0.6
South Carolina 9.02% 8.6
South Dakota (c) 9.75% 6.8
Tennessee 7.98% 5.8
Texas 11.04% 12.6
Utah (b) 9.23% 12.2
Vermont 11.04% -0.3
Virginia (b) 10.87% 5.9
Washington 11.68% 10.1
West Virginia 10.39% -2
Wisconsin 13.62% 1.9
Wyoming 7.45% 2.8
D.C. 10.00% 15.3
Data used for all states (including D.C.) for "Effective Total State and Local Tax Rates on Median US Household": (https://wallethub.com/edu/best-worst-states-to-be-a-taxpayer/2416/)
Data used for population change over 8 years, from 2010 to 2017 (https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/geo/chart/US/PST120217)
I copied the data to Excel and graphed it. Turns out there is a slight correlation (r^2=.2559) between these figures. However, you cannot put much confidence in such an errant correlation. Because of this, I would attribute other variables (such as weather) to be a much bigger factor in migration between states rather than tax data. It remains possible that state and local tax rate have no effect on migration. More likely is the idea that that tax rates are a factor for some people, which is why the regression line isnt closer to zero.
Id also point out the error in the local and state tax information, as this site had different information than TaxFoundation.org, but I did the best I could without spending much time.
Feel free to graph it yourself. Here is the data I used:
State Combined Tax Rate Population Growth
Alabama 9.40% 2
Alaska 5.67% 4.2
Arizona 9.50% 9.8
Arkansas 12.30% 3
California (b) 8.77% 6.1
Colorado 9.27% 11.5
Connecticut 13.85% 0.4
Delaware 6.11% 7.1
Florida 8.83% 11.6
Georgia 10.54% 7.6
Hawaii (c) 10.33% 4.9
Idaho 8.48% 9.5
Illinois 14.89% -0.2
Indiana 11.86% 2.8
Iowa 12.92% 3.2
Kansas 12.42% 2.1
Kentucky 12.06% 2.6
Louisiana 10.39% 3.3
Maine 11.75% 0.6
Maryland 11.96% 4.8
Massachusetts 11.61% 4.8
Michigan 12.81% 0.8
Minnesota 11.57% 5.1
Mississippi 12.21% 0.5
Missouri 11.28% 2.1
Montana (d) 7.29% 6.2
Nebraska 13.83% 5.1
Nevada 7.44% 11
New Hampshire 10.27% 2
New Jersey (e) 12.87% 2.4
New Mexico (c) 10.82% 1.4
New York 13.72% 2.4
North Carolina 10.64% 7.7
North Dakota 9.84% 12.3
Ohio 13.09% 1.1
Oklahoma 10.75% 4.8
Oregon 9.20% 8.1
Pennsylvania 12.45% 0.8
Rhode Island 13.69% 0.6
South Carolina 9.02% 8.6
South Dakota (c) 9.75% 6.8
Tennessee 7.98% 5.8
Texas 11.04% 12.6
Utah (b) 9.23% 12.2
Vermont 11.04% -0.3
Virginia (b) 10.87% 5.9
Washington 11.68% 10.1
West Virginia 10.39% -2
Wisconsin 13.62% 1.9
Wyoming 7.45% 2.8
D.C. 10.00% 15.3
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Taxes and migration - Badird MU - 2/14 14:34:05