The rash of firings and coaching slumps - concern for Odom

Posted on: November 25, 2017 at 21:18:13 CT

the increase in salaries paid to college coaches has only increased the sense of urgency with which they are managed. While this is to be expected, it's unfortunate at times because, while the fans' and boosters' expectations are raised, the dynamics of taking over and redirecting a program haven't because 18-22yo men haven't changed so much, either.

Almost any coach taking over a program in some trouble is going to have some sort of slump his third or fourth year, because of the recruiting turmoil and discontinuity in the year he takes over and maybe the year after. While this was never easy, the heightened expectations can cause the coach to have much more to deal with than ever before from a fan base unwilling to except the limitations of the problem ... sometimes leaving the coach "on the hot seat" prematurely, sometimes with their reputation irreparably damaged for recruiting and ticket sales growth.

Even the very best of coaches have had these slumps when they took over a program in turmoil:

Nick Saban - year 3 LSU, year 4 Alabama
Steve Spurrier - year 3 Florida, year 3 S. Carolina
Lou Holtz - year 4 NC State, year 4 Arkansas
Bill McCartney - year 3 Colorado
Bill Snyder - year 4 KSU
Jackie Sherrill - year 3 Texas A&M, year 3 Mississippi St.
Les Miles - year 4 Ok. St., year 4 LSU
Gary Pinkel - year 4 Mizzou
Kevin Sumlin - year 3 Houston, year 3 texas A&M (subtle)
Gus Malzahn - year 3 Auburn

There are many, many more examples ... the point being, 3rd/4th year turmoil *should* be expected as the norm rather than the exception when a coach takes over - there is a culture transition as well as dealing with the premature attrition of the predecessor's last class and the staggered recruiting of their first couple of classes. It's more pronounced in traditionally weaker programs than stronger, and the more turmoil the program was in at the transition. Coaches either get through this later slump or they are damaged and flame out (Sumlin, likely, Butch Jones, Will Muschamp at Fla., etc.)

Granted - a lot of coaches are also their own worst enemies at these times ... they don't have a way to communicate their concerns about the lineup in advance in a way that manages expectations ... and they may have burned a lot of collateral going over the top with the growing success if they've bounced the record upward in say years 2 and 3 (I'm looking at you, Pinkel). This is sadly more common than you might think - too many don't hedge their bets and manage expectations around this issue well.

Odom walked through a lot of fire this year and seems to have a good hold on the locker room, finally. It's as though that challenge hit him earlier than it hit some of the examples above. And he's done a spectacular job recruiting thus far, filling gaps in the lineup and putting a lot of unexpectedly good young players on the field. This is a young Tiger team.

However, the transition from Lock, Beckner, and Witter (and some others) won't necessarily be smooth. I hope people are a little more patient with him the next couple years while he makes his next leap. I think it's having an upward trend between years 4 and 5 that tells more than between years 1 and 2. I hope everyone here can wait out the next round of crap while he retools the depth and some key positions. It will come quickly if Lock and Beckner leave early.