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Really man. this is basic stuff

Posted on: November 4, 2016 at 10:57:17 CT
Fat Drunk and Stupid MU
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a poll is an estimate of party affilitation in the population. You can't take the results of one poll as a reflection of the underlying truth and then criticize other polls for deviating from that. ABC may have the correct breakdown.

Everyone was saying what you were saying in 2012 and the underlying truth of hte voting electorate didn't align with gallup or other exepectations.
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On polling accuracy... - JeffB MU - 11/4 10:41:20
     I believe "voter enthusiasm" is going to be the key to this - DHighlander KC - 11/4 11:07:34
     How do you know what the partisan affiliation - Fat Drunk and Stupid MU - 11/4 10:46:16
          One simple way would be to compare the number of registered - DHighlander KC - 11/4 11:09:08
          They ask them. That's pretty much the business of polling - JeffB MU - 11/4 10:54:53
               Here's gallup explaning why they were wrong - Fat Drunk and Stupid MU - 11/4 10:59:21
                    That does not support your case. In fact, it supports mine.. - JeffB MU - 11/4 11:30:37
               Really man. this is basic stuff - Fat Drunk and Stupid MU - 11/4 10:57:17
                    What is ABC basing their breakdown on? It fits the pattern - JeffB MU - 11/4 11:13:30
                    Why do you think ABC has the correct breakdown? (nm) - Sal KC - 11/4 10:58:48
                         I don't. take the median or mean of the set of polls(nm) - Fat Drunk and Stupid MU - 11/4 10:59:43
                              gotcha (nm) - Sal KC - 11/4 11:07:00




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