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Why can't people understand polling?

Posted on: November 3, 2016 at 18:27:17 CT
tjwheeler UI
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Realclear averages every poll regardless of variance among the polls with some recent polls being rather worthless. Registered voters vs Likely voters. 550 LV vs 1700 LV. Internals assuming double the increase in a specific ethnicity/demographic vs Internals assuming a regression of the same demographic group to 2008 levels.

These polls are largely stupid a week out.
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Per latest poll Trump would have it a little tougher to win - JeffB MU - 11/3 17:13:42
     Absolutely no way Hillary is leading Florida by 4%... - Salty Dog MU - 11/3 17:52:13
          Oh there's lots of ways. - GA Tiger MU - 11/3 18:58:19
               The problem with minorities in Florida especially S. Florida - Salty Dog MU - 11/3 19:05:48
                    I would say generally true, at least with the - GA Tiger MU - 11/3 19:16:17
                    So you stereotype and discuss "American minorities" - tjwheeler UI - 11/3 19:10:34
                         Are you denying American Blacks don't vote 95-97% Democrat? - Salty Dog MU - 11/3 19:25:07
                              No, I'm implying your post was hilariously hypocritical(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 11/3 19:27:56
                         Many things can be sterotyped, because they are - GA Tiger MU - 11/3 19:19:25
                              How much time have you spent in an African country?(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 11/3 19:20:28
                                   How much have you? (nm) - Salty Dog MU - 11/3 19:25:46
                                        Every 2-3 years in East Africa since 1998. Next ?(nm) - tjwheeler UI - 11/3 19:27:34
          RE: Absolutely no way Hillary is leading Florida by 4%... - sarasotatiger MU - 11/3 18:40:47
               Because I am very perceptive and scary smart (nm) - Salty Dog MU - 11/3 18:42:51
          RCP average has it dead even (46.1 - 46.1) - Spanky KU - 11/3 18:00:43
               Why can't people understand polling? - tjwheeler UI - 11/3 18:27:17
               Why do you want to destroy America? - Mr. Orange SU - 11/3 18:09:32
                    Obama, Hillary and Dem-Libs want to destroy America - Spanky KU - 11/3 18:20:26
                    destroy liberals, big difference. - Coors4bob MU - 11/3 18:17:33
               The polls bounce all over the place and at least a couple - JeffB MU - 11/3 18:05:10
               Early voting had favored Clinton though FWIW (nm) - MrBlueSky MU - 11/3 18:03:10
                    are you basing this on exit polling or what? where are you - blake1771 KC - 11/3 18:21:52
                         He's just making it up (nm) - Salty Dog MU - 11/3 18:44:38
                    That depends upon who is interpreting the turnout... - JeffB MU - 11/3 18:08:39
                    No it hasn't...There are no votes counted so that... - Salty Dog MU - 11/3 18:06:06
          Toro Rule - JG A - 11/3 17:54:15
     IF HRC wins FL, it is over - raskolnikov MU - 11/3 17:17:25
          Not gonna happen for Hillary in Florida... - Salty Dog MU - 11/3 17:52:46
               May or may not. If it does, it is over, if it doesn't then - raskolnikov MU - 11/3 19:40:45
               RE: Not gonna happen for Hillary in Florida... - sarasotatiger MU - 11/3 18:43:13
                    I'm very perceptive and I'm scary smart (nm) - Salty Dog MU - 11/3 18:45:17
          Per that sorted chart of the most recent polls Florida - JeffB MU - 11/3 17:44:43
          If Cankles wins period, it's over - Diamond Dave MU - 11/3 17:37:55
          IF HRC wins, it is over (nm) - Fourth and Long MU - 11/3 17:23:30
               Thats right, Might as well pack up and go. Turn it over to - Uncle Fester USMC - 11/3 17:49:20
     Why do you want to destroy America? - Mr. Orange SU - 11/3 17:15:39
          Cuz hes a Evil degenerate - Uncle Fester USMC - 11/3 17:22:56
               ? He's asserting that I'm trying to elect Trump & destroy - JeffB MU - 11/3 17:50:35
                    My bad JeffB, I thought he was being sarcastic to the sufi - Uncle Fester USMC - 11/3 17:53:50
                         I figured you logged in the wrong handle! - Mr. Orange SU - 11/3 17:55:53
                    For once fez is right - Mr. Orange SU - 11/3 17:52:08




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