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Per latest poll Trump would have it a little tougher to win

Posted on: November 3, 2016 at 17:13:42 CT

JeffB MU

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M.O.B. Votes:

Opinion Savvy's poll gives Florida a +4% Hillary lean.

Using the latest polls fro www.270towin.com ,given the usual caveats, it looks like Trump would need to win:

1. all of the states he is leading on that list
2. Iowa (tied as of 10/27/16 Quinnipiac poll)
3. Virginia +1.5% Hillary lean per yesterday's polls by Hampton U & Winthrop U (averaged)
4. Either Pennsylvania +3.7 avg lean per 3 polls yesterday OR Florida +4% lean per Opinion Savvy

Alaska & Maine's 2n District are in that range but only have 4 electoral votes between them & would be irrelevant in this scenario.


State	        EV    Hillary  Trump   0ther  Hillary 	MoE	 date	         EV	EV	 poll
                 #	 %	 %	 %    % lean			       Trump  Hillary	
DC *           	3	90	10		80		09/06/16	538	3	n/a
Maryland	10	63	27	4	36		10/06/16	535	13	Wash Post/U of Maryland
Massachusetts	11	57	25	11	32		10/27/16	525	24	Suffolk University
Vermont      	3	50	22	16	28		10/27/16	514	27	WCAX
Hawaii    	4	51	25	10	26		09/06/16	511	31	Wash Post/Survey Monkey
New York	29	54	30	7	24		10/19/16	507	60	Siena College
Delaware	3	51	30	10	21		10/03/16	478	63	Univ Delaware
Rhode Island	4	52	32	6	20		10/06/16	475	67	Emerson College
California	55	53	33	7	20		11/03/16	471	122	Field Poll UC Berkeley
Washington	12	48	31	19	17		10/24/16	416	134	Elway Poll
Connecticut	7	50	35	2	15		09/07/16	404	141	Emerson College
New Jersey	14	51	40	9	11		10/18/16	397	155	Fairleigh Dickenson
Illinois	20	49	37.5	8.5	8.4		11/01/16	383	175	Emerson College/Loras College
New Mexico	5	41	33	3	8		10/18/16	363	180	Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Minnesota	10	47	39	7	8		10/24/16	358	190	Minneapolis Star Tribune
Oregon       	7	41	34	25	7		11/01/16	348	197	DHM Research
Michigan	16	50	43	2	7		11/01/16	341	213	Mitchell Research
Colorado	9	44	38	9	6	4.40%	11/03/16	325	222	Magellen Strategies
Wisconsin	10	46	40	7	6	3.50%	11/02/16	316	232	Marquette Law
Maine        	3	44	39.5	7	4.5		11/01/16	306	235	Emerson College/MPRC
Florida       	29	49	45	2	4	4.00%	11/03/16	303	264	Opinion Savvy
Pennsylvania	20	48	44.3	7.7	3.7	4.07%	11/02/16	274	284	CNN/ORC, Monmouth, Susquehanna
Virginia	13	45	43.5	11.7	1.5		11/02/16	254	297	Winthrop University/Hampton U
Maine 2nd Dist	1	43.5	42.5	17	1	3.45%	11/01/16	241	298	Emerson College/MPRC
Alaska       	3	47	43	17	0		10/26/16	240	301	Cracium Research
Iowa       	6	44	44	7	0	3.50%	10/27/16	237	307	Quinnipiac
Georgia        	16	44	45	3	-1	3.70%	11/03/16	231	323	NBC/WSJ/Marist
New Hampshire	4	41.3	43.3	7	-2	4.27%	11/03/16	215	327	WBUR, ARG, Suffolk
Mississippi	6	43	46	5	-3		09/16/16	211	333	Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nevada       	6	44	47	3.5	-3	3.75%	11/02/16	205	339	CNN/ORC, JMC Analytics
North Carolina	15	43	46.5	7.5	-3.5		11/01/16	199	354	Elon University/SurveyUSA
South Carolina	9	38	42	11	-4		09/29/16	184	363	Winthrop University
Arizona       	11	40	45	3	-5	3.70%	11/03/16	175	374	NBC/WSJ/Marist
Ohio      	18	43	48	6	-5		10/31/16	164	392	Remington Research
Utah      	6	31	39.5	3	-8.5	4.45%	11/03/16	146	398	Monmouth University/Rassmussen
North Dakota	3	32	43	16	-11		09/20/16	140	401	DFM Research
Kansas      	6	36	47	8	-11		10/17/16	137	407	SurveyUSA
Indiana       	11	39	50	7	-11		10/31/16	131	418	Monmouth University
Arkansas	6	39.5	51	5.5	-11.5		10/24/16	120	424	avg Hendrick & Remington
Tennessee	11	34.5	46	13	-11.5		10/04/16	114	435	MTSU/Vanderbilt
Texas      	38	39	52	4	-13		11/01/16	103	473	Dixie Strategies
South Dakota	3	35	49	9	-14		11/01/16	65	476	Nielson Brothers
Louisiana	8	35	49	7	-14		10/28/16	62	484	University of New Orleans
Missouri	10	37	52	4	-15	3.80%	11/02/16	54	494	Emerson College
Montana        	3	27	43	21	-16		10/25/16	44	497	Montana State U
Kentucky	8	37	54	7	-17		11/01/16	41	505	Western Kentucky U
Idaho      	4	29	48	7	-19		10/27/16	33	509	Rasmussen
Alabama      	9	31	53	6	-22		09/06/16	29	518	Wash Post/Survey Monkey
West Virginia	5	27	52	5	-25		09/06/16	20	523	Wash Post/Survey Monkey
Nebraska	5	29	56	7	-27		09/28/16	15	528	Emerson College
Oklahoma	7	30	60	5	-30		10/23/16	10	535	Sooner Poll
Wyoming      	3	19	54	15	-35		09/21/16	3	538	DFM Research