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By the way, it looks like he has led in NH at times...

Posted on: October 6, 2016 at 13:03:05 CT

JoplinTiger07 MU

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http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/

It's a close race there, too close for Hillary to overcome the huge enthusiasm gap she suffers from with respect to Trump.

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Hillary's lead in New Hampshire drops to 2 points... - MUTGR MU - 10/6 12:41:46

We may be small but we're slow - raskolnikov MU - 10/6 13:11:44

the Ras family motto. thanks for sharing. - RHAYWORTH MU - 10/6 13:23:37

lol. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:24:14

It'll look a lot like 2012, I think. - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:13:23

personally, in my opinion, - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:14:07

As in, another failed presidential campaign for Hillary. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:15:31

as in, - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:16:26

Maybe, but I don't think Hillary - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:20:27

i was thinking popular vote, not electoral. (nm) - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:28:14

Hillary < Obama... Trump > McCain. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:17:44

Yet we have yet to see how Ayotte's role model misspeak - Webbster MU - 10/6 12:58:16

RE: Yet we have yet to see how Ayotte's role model misspeak - MUTGR MU - 10/6 13:02:06

He is rebounding rapidly from the debate and Machado thing. - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 12:49:25

no.(nm) - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:02:00

ok, ignore reality then. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:03:27

No he didn't..nm - Webbster MU - 10/6 12:59:02

Trump has never led in a NH poll. - jeepdad MU - 10/6 12:47:10

By the way, it looks like he has led in NH at times... - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:03:05

Maybe, but voter turnout will put him ahead. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 12:50:06

That's what many on your side were predicting in 2012. - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:03:06

Apples & Oranges. Hillary ain't Obama. Romney ain't Trump. - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:08:30

yep. - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:06:16

That's my bet in NH. - RHAYWORTH MU - 10/6 12:55:33

RE: Trump has never led in a NH poll. - MUTGR MU - 10/6 12:49:31

In one poll, yes. - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:01:23

The RCP average is a lagging indicator due to factoring in - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:07:37

they give those outdated polls less weight. - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:09:25

like I said, it factors in outdated data — look at the most - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:10:35

ok, - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:15:29

within MoE.. i.e., statistically tied with Trump. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:16:24

with MOE she can be up by as much as 6.4% - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:17:07

maybe, or losing to Trump by 1... it's called a "statistical - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:18:31

Good point. It's a statistical tie. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 12:50:32

RE: Trump has never led in a NH poll. - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 12:50:27

The poll that site weights as "most accurate" confirms what - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 12:57:52

were does it say it is the most accurate? (nm) - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 12:58:27

"The model weights each poll by its sample size, how - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:00:43

so, it doesn't say it is the most accurate. - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:01:45

The criteria for the weight attribute can be summed up as - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:06:02

You are working very hard to make a case - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:18:21

LOL, you are delusional. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:19:24