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"The model weights each poll by its sample size, how

Posted on: October 6, 2016 at 13:00:43 CT
JoplinTiger07 MU
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recently it was conducted, and the historical accuracy and methodology of the polling firm."
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Hillary's lead in New Hampshire drops to 2 points... - MUTGR MU - 10/6 12:41:46
     We may be small but we're slow - raskolnikov MU - 10/6 13:11:44
          the Ras family motto. thanks for sharing. - RHAYWORTH MU - 10/6 13:23:37
               lol. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:24:14
          It'll look a lot like 2012, I think. - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:13:23
               personally, in my opinion, - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:14:07
                    As in, another failed presidential campaign for Hillary. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:15:31
                         as in, - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:16:26
                              Maybe, but I don't think Hillary - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:20:27
                                   i was thinking popular vote, not electoral. (nm) - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:28:14
                              Hillary < Obama... Trump > McCain. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:17:44
     Yet we have yet to see how Ayotte's role model misspeak - Webbster MU - 10/6 12:58:16
          RE: Yet we have yet to see how Ayotte's role model misspeak - MUTGR MU - 10/6 13:02:06
     He is rebounding rapidly from the debate and Machado thing. - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 12:49:25
          no.(nm) - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:02:00
               ok, ignore reality then. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:03:27
          No he didn't..nm - Webbster MU - 10/6 12:59:02
     Trump has never led in a NH poll. - jeepdad MU - 10/6 12:47:10
          By the way, it looks like he has led in NH at times... - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:03:05
          Maybe, but voter turnout will put him ahead. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 12:50:06
               That's what many on your side were predicting in 2012. - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:03:06
                    Apples & Oranges. Hillary ain't Obama. Romney ain't Trump. - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:08:30
                    yep. - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:06:16
               That's my bet in NH. - RHAYWORTH MU - 10/6 12:55:33
          RE: Trump has never led in a NH poll. - MUTGR MU - 10/6 12:49:31
               In one poll, yes. - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:01:23
                    The RCP average is a lagging indicator due to factoring in - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:07:37
                         they give those outdated polls less weight. - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:09:25
                              like I said, it factors in outdated data — look at the most - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:10:35
                                   ok, - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:15:29
                                        within MoE.. i.e., statistically tied with Trump. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:16:24
                                             with MOE she can be up by as much as 6.4% - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:17:07
                                                  maybe, or losing to Trump by 1... it's called a "statistical - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:18:31
               Good point. It's a statistical tie. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 12:50:32
               RE: Trump has never led in a NH poll. - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 12:50:27
                    The poll that site weights as "most accurate" confirms what - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 12:57:52
                         were does it say it is the most accurate? (nm) - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 12:58:27
                              "The model weights each poll by its sample size, how - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:00:43
                                   so, it doesn't say it is the most accurate. - mizzou alum 93 MU - 10/6 13:01:45
                                        The criteria for the weight attribute can be summed up as - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:06:02
                                             You are working very hard to make a case - jeepdad MU - 10/6 13:18:21
                                                  LOL, you are delusional. NM - JoplinTiger07 MU - 10/6 13:19:24




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