RE: Have we discussed Beef Prices today?
Posted on: August 24, 2025 at 18:17:40 CT
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Record-high beef prices are the result of a multi-year trend driven by a shrinking cattle supply, persistent high demand, and increasing production costs. This has created a "perfect storm" of economic pressures that are expected to keep prices elevated for the next few years.
Supply chain issues
Decades-low cattle inventory: The U.S. cattle herd is currently at its smallest size since the 1950s. This is the most significant factor driving up beef costs.
Prolonged drought: A severe drought across key cattle-producing states in recent years dramatically increased feed costs for ranchers. To cut their losses, many were forced to sell off a higher-than-normal number of breeding female cows, which reduced the industry's ability to produce new calves.
High costs delay herd rebuilding: Despite record-high beef prices at the store, ranchers face thin profit margins due to inflated costs for feed, labor, energy, and land. This makes it difficult for them to invest in expanding their herds, and many continue to sell cows for slaughter rather than for breeding.
Long-term recovery: The biological reality of cattle farming means it takes years to rebuild herds. The current small inventory will continue to suppress supply and keep retail prices high for the foreseeable future.
External pressures
Robust consumer demand: Even with soaring costs, consumer demand for beef has remained strong. While some shoppers have moved to cheaper cuts or other proteins like pork or poultry, overall demand continues to outpace the constrained supply.
Trade policies and disease: Tariffs imposed on beef imports from countries like Brazil and Australia raise costs for meatpackers, especially for lean beef used in ground products. Additionally, a screwworm parasite outbreak in Mexico prompted a ban on cattle imports, further tightening the U.S. supply.
Consolidated industry and inflation: The beef industry is concentrated among a few major meatpackers, which some economists argue gives them outsized power in pricing. Overall inflationary pressures, especially after the pandemic, have also pushed up costs across the supply chain.
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