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ESPN alsorithim predicts middling season for Mizzou...
Posted on: June 10, 2025 at 21:51:00 CT
MUTGR MU
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https://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/mizzou/article_f799ca32-5952-4bbf-8415-68ce5eb762b8.html#tracking-source=home-sports
COLUMBIA, Mo. — Who’s up for some offseason number-crunching?
College football games are still more than two and a half months away, but projections of how many Missouri will win are available now. The offseason is no time to wait for real action when there are algorithms’ predictions to unpack.
ESPN’s College Football Power Index and SP+ rankings are both up and running for the 2025 season, and they share a similar view of a Mizzou team that will be replacing key talent while seeking a third consecutive 10-win season.
Both metrics have the Tigers as a top 25 program, largely based on the strength of the Southeastern Conference — but one that’ll be in the bottom half of the league.
To understand just how highly the FPI, for example, rates the quality of the SEC, take a look at its strength of schedule rankings. MU has the weakest — that being a very relative term here — schedule of any SEC team. The Tigers still have the 20th-toughest schedule in the nation. The 11 toughest schedules and 15 of the top 16 all belong to SEC programs.
To further reinforce the perceived strength: The SP+ rankings, which are meant to factor in returning production and transfer/recruiting ratings, have Missouri as the No. 21 team in the country. That’s only good for 11th-best in the SEC, though, behind South Carolina and ahead of Auburn.
FPI tabs Mizzou as the No. 23 team and 13th in the SEC, bypassed by Auburn and Arkansas.
The chances of an SEC team going undefeated are quite low. Texas, Georgia and Alabama, the three highest-rated teams in the FPI, have only 8.9%, 6.3% and 3.9% chances, respectively. Yet all three have 66% or greater chances of making the College Football Playoff, which shows what the 12-team model does for getting SEC teams into the field.
MU’s chances of making the playoff are 9.2%, per the FPI predictions. Those are the 33rd-highest odds in the country, with Georgia Tech just ahead of the Tigers in playoff likelihood and Indiana just behind. Mizzou’s 0.2% — or 1 in 500 — chance of winning a national championship is the 25th-highest.
More pragmatically, the SP+ algorithm gives Missouri a 5% chance of winning at least 10 games this season. Never in program history have the Tigers won 10 games in three straight seasons, and that benchmark is one of the team’s goals in 2025. A 10-2 regular season would probably be enough for a playoff bid, but schedule strength relative to the rest of the SEC could challenge that notion for Mizzou.
Overall, the metrics are not especially bullish on MU’s 2025 outlook. FPI projects only 6.9 wins and a 77% chance of making a bowl game. That’s even a bit below the line of 7.5 wins offered at major sportsbooks.
The obvious question mark around the Tigers is how they’ll replace several skill position players, plus key linemen, on offense. According to the SP+ tabulation, Mizzou brings back just 44% of its offense from 2024, which is evidently seen as a limitation. But Notre Dame has just 47% of its production back and ranks sixth in SP+. Ohio State, which will, like Mizzou, use a new and unproven quarterback in 2025, tops the SP+ table.
So while the computers aren’t ruling out an eye-popping season, they seem to think Missouri will be bogged down in the SEC while fighting on the fringes of the top 25.
Edited by MUTGR at 21:53:01 on 06/10/25
COLUMBIA, Mo. — Who’s up for some offseason number-crunching?
College football games are still more than two and a half months away, but projections of how many Missouri will win are available now. The offseason is no time to wait for real action when there are algorithms’ predictions to unpack.
ESPN’s College Football Power Index and SP+ rankings are both up and running for the 2025 season, and they share a similar view of a Mizzou team that will be replacing key talent while seeking a third consecutive 10-win season.
Both metrics have the Tigers as a top 25 program, largely based on the strength of the Southeastern Conference — but one that’ll be in the bottom half of the league.
To understand just how highly the FPI, for example, rates the quality of the SEC, take a look at its strength of schedule rankings. MU has the weakest — that being a very relative term here — schedule of any SEC team. The Tigers still have the 20th-toughest schedule in the nation. The 11 toughest schedules and 15 of the top 16 all belong to SEC programs.
To further reinforce the perceived strength: The SP+ rankings, which are meant to factor in returning production and transfer/recruiting ratings, have Missouri as the No. 21 team in the country. That’s only good for 11th-best in the SEC, though, behind South Carolina and ahead of Auburn.
FPI tabs Mizzou as the No. 23 team and 13th in the SEC, bypassed by Auburn and Arkansas.
The chances of an SEC team going undefeated are quite low. Texas, Georgia and Alabama, the three highest-rated teams in the FPI, have only 8.9%, 6.3% and 3.9% chances, respectively. Yet all three have 66% or greater chances of making the College Football Playoff, which shows what the 12-team model does for getting SEC teams into the field.
MU’s chances of making the playoff are 9.2%, per the FPI predictions. Those are the 33rd-highest odds in the country, with Georgia Tech just ahead of the Tigers in playoff likelihood and Indiana just behind. Mizzou’s 0.2% — or 1 in 500 — chance of winning a national championship is the 25th-highest.
More pragmatically, the SP+ algorithm gives Missouri a 5% chance of winning at least 10 games this season. Never in program history have the Tigers won 10 games in three straight seasons, and that benchmark is one of the team’s goals in 2025. A 10-2 regular season would probably be enough for a playoff bid, but schedule strength relative to the rest of the SEC could challenge that notion for Mizzou.
Overall, the metrics are not especially bullish on MU’s 2025 outlook. FPI projects only 6.9 wins and a 77% chance of making a bowl game. That’s even a bit below the line of 7.5 wins offered at major sportsbooks.
The obvious question mark around the Tigers is how they’ll replace several skill position players, plus key linemen, on offense. According to the SP+ tabulation, Mizzou brings back just 44% of its offense from 2024, which is evidently seen as a limitation. But Notre Dame has just 47% of its production back and ranks sixth in SP+. Ohio State, which will, like Mizzou, use a new and unproven quarterback in 2025, tops the SP+ table.
So while the computers aren’t ruling out an eye-popping season, they seem to think Missouri will be bogged down in the SEC while fighting on the fringes of the top 25.
Edited by MUTGR at 21:53:01 on 06/10/25
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ESPN alsorithim predicts middling season for Mizzou... - MUTGR MU - 6/10 21:51:00
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