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The problem with most bracketologist is that they do not...
Posted on: February 28, 2025 at 11:22:46 CT
Your Daddy MU
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employ any recency bias. Since Jan 3rd we are one of the top team in the country. Bart Torvik gets it. Joe Lunardi does not.
I think the thing I don't know is what are the goals of these bracketologist? Are they trying to predict what the seeding committee will do (Lunardi does this for sure). Or are they trying to project where these teams actually belong (which is what Torvik does).
Iowa State is playing awful now as are a lot of other teams who had great Nov/Dec runs.
The issue is, if you look at which teams made the final four over the last 20 years, a greater percentage of those team won their conf tourney or made it to the finals. Again, the key measurement s/b who is playng the best ball this time of year. And that is why there are so many upsets. If you look beyond the seed comparison and actually look at the trend on level of play, that is a much better indicator.
I am sure we are better than a 5 seed. I am also sure the NCAA will put us as a 4 when we deserve to be a 3. I am also sure they will try to give us a potential match up with Tonje or KU part 2 b/c the committee has a sense of humor and like to produce matches that have external narratives for the broadcast to tie into. If Kimmie makes the dance (unlikely) we would probably face him in R1 as an example.
Edited by Your Daddy at 11:23:19 on 02/28/25
I think the thing I don't know is what are the goals of these bracketologist? Are they trying to predict what the seeding committee will do (Lunardi does this for sure). Or are they trying to project where these teams actually belong (which is what Torvik does).
Iowa State is playing awful now as are a lot of other teams who had great Nov/Dec runs.
The issue is, if you look at which teams made the final four over the last 20 years, a greater percentage of those team won their conf tourney or made it to the finals. Again, the key measurement s/b who is playng the best ball this time of year. And that is why there are so many upsets. If you look beyond the seed comparison and actually look at the trend on level of play, that is a much better indicator.
I am sure we are better than a 5 seed. I am also sure the NCAA will put us as a 4 when we deserve to be a 3. I am also sure they will try to give us a potential match up with Tonje or KU part 2 b/c the committee has a sense of humor and like to produce matches that have external narratives for the broadcast to tie into. If Kimmie makes the dance (unlikely) we would probably face him in R1 as an example.
Edited by Your Daddy at 11:23:19 on 02/28/25
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The problem with most bracketologist is that they do not... - Your Daddy MU - 2/28 11:22:46