the #4 seed have gone from 10% to 15% according to the website I linked (and almost 30% overall...I don't remember the chances the site listed for getting to #2/#3 a week ago but they were pretty miniscule)
http://tigerboard.com/boards/view.php?message=19408156
Much depends on our game tomorrow obviously, but losing it probably doesn't affect our % nearly as much as winning tomorrow would I think. Surprisingly, if we win tomorrow it might be Bama instead of A&M we're chasing. Bama has a brutal remaining schedule, A&M still has to face UT, FLA and Auburn (+ MSU on the road) while we have an easier schedule than either of them although 3 games are on the road. Florida still has to play Bama but gets A&M and Ole Miss at home to end the year. Their game at the end of the year with Bama could be for 2nd place but if we beat the Tide tomorrow they could lose that game and still end up 2nd. Auburn finishes the season with 4/6 games at home, they could trip up on one of the road games but at this point they'd probably have to lose half the team not to end up #1.
It's crazy that a year after not winning a conference game, we're vying for a top 4 position in what is being called the deepest conference of all time. You think about how many close losses we've had to very good teams, how we keep getting better and it feels like what is needed to win those games is there if the team can bring it out of themselves.