Maybe that explains this...

Posted on: December 1, 2024 at 13:06:36 CT

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/education/st-louis-school-districts-lose-nearly-11-000-students-over-5-years/article_c061bce6-ac24-11ef-96e8-e3109c840339.html#tracking-source=home-top-story


St. Louis school districts lose nearly 11,000 students over 5 years
Blythe Bernhard , Josh Renaud 1 hr ago 12
Lack of students on St. Louis Public Schools buses
A Columbia Elementary School student prepares to step onto a bus provided by St. Louis Public Schools on Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2024, at Columbia Elementary School in St. Louis.

Zachary Linhares, Post Dispatch
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Blythe Bernhard , Josh Renaud
ST. LOUIS — Enrollment in most St. Louis area school districts has continued to plummet five years after the pandemic sparked an exodus of students, according to newly released state data.

Since the fall of 2019, public school districts have lost more than 6,000 students in St. Louis County and 3,000 in St. Louis. Schools in St. Charles County are down by 872 students. Fox School District, the largest in Jefferson County, has dropped 1,000.

Five local districts — Hancock Place, Jennings, Normandy, St. Louis Public Schools and Valley Park — have been hit the worst, losing more than one in every 10 of their students. But even districts like Clayton, Fort Zumwalt, Parkway, Rockwood and Webster Groves, which have been popular with families, are seeing steep declines, according to 2024-2025 data from the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education. Overall, enrollment is down across the region by more than 4%.


“The loss of enrollment creates a death spiral where you have less funding, which leads to less staff, which leads to less programs, and people start to look at other places,” said Robert Dillon of local consulting firm Intentional School Designs. “It’s a really nasty place to be. There isn’t really a way out of it without having more kids in your district.”


The impact is already being felt with a potential hiring freeze in Ferguson-Florissant, staff buyouts in Special School District and Webster Groves, and preliminary talks of a four-day week in Fox.

Coupled with the ongoing national teacher shortage, the necessary budget cuts will lead to bigger class sizes and more online courses. Eventually, layoffs and school closures and even school district consolidation could be on the table, Dillon said.


“It’s a slow climate change kind of thing where you don’t even notice it’s happening,” he said.

Missouri K-12 enrollment, 2006-2025
Number of students
800,000
820,000
840,000
860,000
880,000
900,000
2006
2011
2016
2021
888594
SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education
datashare×
Year Enrollment
2006-01-01 888594
2007-01-01 895169
2008-01-01 895204
2009-01-01 893572
2010-01-01 891782
2011-01-01 889112
2012-01-01 885492
2013-01-01 887540
2014-01-01 887033
2015-01-01 886263
2016-01-01 884883
2017-01-01 883653
2018-01-01 881570
2019-01-01 881027
2020-01-01 879493
2021-01-01 859166
2022-01-01 863227
2023-01-01 861863
2024-01-01 859213
2025-01-01 857156
Missouri K-12 enrollment, 2006-2025download csv×
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Statewide, public school enrollment has fallen by more than 22,300 students, or 2.5%, to 857,156 over the last five years.

For most of the districts, enrollment started to fall a decade ago in the aftermath of a national drop in birth rates. Since 2010, births in the U.S. have been below the population replacement level of two children per adult woman. The pandemic accelerated the decline when more families switched to home-schooling and to a lesser degree, private schools.

Across Missouri, the share of home-schooling students grew from 5.6% in 2020-2021 to 7.7% in 2023-2024, according to a Post-Dispatch analysis of U.S. Census survey data. The share of all students enrolled in private school increased from 6.8% to 7.0% in the same period.


While private schools typically don’t release enrollment figures, many Catholic schools have struggled to fill seats. The Archdiocese of St. Louis has closed dozens of parish grade schools including three this year — Little Flower in Richmond Heights, St. Monica in Creve Coeur and St. Roch in St. Louis.


The enrollment loss in public schools has not been distributed equally. Eight of 28 school districts in St. Louis, St. Louis County and St. Charles County now exceed their pre-pandemic enrollment: Bayless, Ladue, Lindbergh, Orchard Farm, Pattonville, Ritenour, University City and Wentzville.

In University City, the 9% growth in the last five years has been led by an influx of Spanish-speaking families as well as new high school students interested in college credit opportunities and St. Louis County’s only agriculture program. The district has also boosted its family engagement and launched One U City, a resource-sharing consolidation of parent-teacher organizations.


“U. City is really a place for every child,” said Superintendent Sharonica Hardin-Bartley.

There are 801 new students in the Hazelwood School District this year, the biggest gain of any district in the region and the equivalent of two elementary schools. The district only needs about 100 more to reach its pre-pandemic enrollment of 16,589, but that’s still 1,200 students down from a decade ago. Darrin Lilly, Hazelwood spokesman, said he is looking into the reasons for the increase.

Too many schools, not enough students
The interim superintendent of SLPS, Millicent Borishade, spurred optimism this year when she announced a projected enrollment of 19,480 students in preschool through 12th grade, which would mark a rise of 6% after decades of decline.

But state records show enrollment in the district, including preschool, actually dropped 2% to 17,981 students this year.

The district’s flawed projection was based on 2023-2024 enrollment plus new students who registered over the summer, according to Matthew Haack, the district’s manager of pupil accounting.


“I can’t tell you where those students went, they just didn’t arrive,” Haack told the school board in October. “We are doing our due diligence to find out what happened to those students.”

Until 2014, SLPS was the biggest district in the state. Enrollment has since shrunk by one-third, one of the steepest declines in the country. This year, it fell to the 11th largest in the state, below local districts Rockwood, Wentzville, Fort Zumwalt, Hazelwood, Francis Howell and Parkway.

The loss has led to discussions among SLPS administrators about “right-sizing” the district’s 62 schools. Parkway, by contrast, has 200 more students in half as many schools.

There are 23 schools in SLPS with fewer than 200 students, considered a benchmark for viability. Shenandoah Elementary in the Tower Grove East neighborhood has just eight students in its third grade. Adams Elementary in Forest Park Southeast has nine in its sixth. The two schools are among 10 that have only enough students for one class per grade.

A facilities study in May showed that without closing any schools, the cost of upkeep for the district’s buildings will reach an estimated $1.8 billion by 2044.


The district faces a projected $35 million operating budget deficit for this school year. Angie Banks, chief financial officer, told the school board in August that buildings need to close “sooner rather than later, because the numbers just don’t work.”

The board’s president Antionette “Toni” Cousins and vice president Matt Davis, whose terms expire in April, recently told St. Louis Public Radio that there is no plan to close schools by next fall.

Play Video
St. Louis Public Schools acting Superintendent Millicent Borishade spoke Monday, Aug. 19, 2024, about the challenges and successes administrators noticed on the first day of school after their primary bus vendor canceled their contract. Video by Allie Schallert, aschallert@post-dispatch

Edited by MUTGR at 13:07:37 on 12/01/24