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My take on the team now for the SEC race…
Posted on: November 18, 2024 at 13:08:49 CT
bluetiger_ MU
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After a tough 5 set loss to a really good Florida team.
1. Before the match Friday we controlled our own destiny to finish alone in first place in the SEC, win out and we would win the regular season title, which is absolutely remarkable considering the state of the program when Sullivan took over in 2024.
2. Now we control our own destiny to finish in a tie for first, which is also remarkable. Win out, including beating Kentucky, and we would finish no worse than in a 4 way tie for first with Texas, Kentucky and Florida all with 13-3 conference records. Florida finishes with 3 road games, but they are against Auburn, SC and Georgia. SC could upset them (they already whipped Florida 3-0 in Gainsville), but they are hot now and Martin is probably the best player in the conference and I see them finishing at 13-3. Kentucky gets Miss St and Arkansas at home before playing us, they will win those two games handily. Texas closes at Oklahoma and gets Tennessee and Ole Miss at home. Of course OU beat them in a classic 3-2 win in Austin, but I see them winning out also and finishing 13-3.
3. In a 4 way tie for first I don’t know the tiebreakers, but Texas would have the head to head over both Florida and Kentucky, Kentucky would have the head to head win over Florida, and we would win the head to head over Texas, lose it to Florida, and split with Kentucky.
4. Can we win out and finish 13-3? It’s possible. To have a good shot at the SEC title (and a long shot to host in the NCAAs), we had to at least split with Florida and Kentucky. I thought Florida would be the more likely win of the two, but we fell just short there. But an SEC title isn’t possible now without handing Kentucky their third loss, and we still have a shot at that. I’m not concerned about our final match at home with Auburn, they are a mess now. The road matches coming up against Ole Miss and Miss St could be tricky, particularly the former. Would not shock me to get tripped up there, but I believe Sullivan will have the team focused and resilient and put the Florida match behind them.
5. Having said all that about conference title chances, finishing in the top 4 of the SEC in Sullivan’s second year would be remarkable. An SEC title, either alone or tied, would have been astonishing, but if we fall just short of that it won’t diminish her accomplishments in any way. The SEC is Texas, Kentucky and Florida, and then everyone else, and to be right there with those 3 teams is something to be proud of.
I’ll save the NCAA bid situation for another post, hopefully the bracket projections on VolleyTalk will be up soon to inform that discussion.
Edited by bluetiger_ at 14:09:28 on 11/18/24
1. Before the match Friday we controlled our own destiny to finish alone in first place in the SEC, win out and we would win the regular season title, which is absolutely remarkable considering the state of the program when Sullivan took over in 2024.
2. Now we control our own destiny to finish in a tie for first, which is also remarkable. Win out, including beating Kentucky, and we would finish no worse than in a 4 way tie for first with Texas, Kentucky and Florida all with 13-3 conference records. Florida finishes with 3 road games, but they are against Auburn, SC and Georgia. SC could upset them (they already whipped Florida 3-0 in Gainsville), but they are hot now and Martin is probably the best player in the conference and I see them finishing at 13-3. Kentucky gets Miss St and Arkansas at home before playing us, they will win those two games handily. Texas closes at Oklahoma and gets Tennessee and Ole Miss at home. Of course OU beat them in a classic 3-2 win in Austin, but I see them winning out also and finishing 13-3.
3. In a 4 way tie for first I don’t know the tiebreakers, but Texas would have the head to head over both Florida and Kentucky, Kentucky would have the head to head win over Florida, and we would win the head to head over Texas, lose it to Florida, and split with Kentucky.
4. Can we win out and finish 13-3? It’s possible. To have a good shot at the SEC title (and a long shot to host in the NCAAs), we had to at least split with Florida and Kentucky. I thought Florida would be the more likely win of the two, but we fell just short there. But an SEC title isn’t possible now without handing Kentucky their third loss, and we still have a shot at that. I’m not concerned about our final match at home with Auburn, they are a mess now. The road matches coming up against Ole Miss and Miss St could be tricky, particularly the former. Would not shock me to get tripped up there, but I believe Sullivan will have the team focused and resilient and put the Florida match behind them.
5. Having said all that about conference title chances, finishing in the top 4 of the SEC in Sullivan’s second year would be remarkable. An SEC title, either alone or tied, would have been astonishing, but if we fall just short of that it won’t diminish her accomplishments in any way. The SEC is Texas, Kentucky and Florida, and then everyone else, and to be right there with those 3 teams is something to be proud of.
I’ll save the NCAA bid situation for another post, hopefully the bracket projections on VolleyTalk will be up soon to inform that discussion.
Edited by bluetiger_ at 14:09:28 on 11/18/24
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My take on the team now for the SEC race… - bluetiger_ MU - 11/18 13:08:49