If I try to be as objective as possible

Posted on: October 29, 2024 at 14:06:33 CT

And simply look at the lessons of 2016 and 2020, here is what I see:

In both of those elections, Trump significantly outperformed his polling on election day. If he even outperforms this time by 1/3 of his outperformance in those elections, he wins.

In 2016, Trump had the hidden energy behind him. In 2020, there was more energy to kick him out than to keep him. In this race, the clear energy advantage once again rests with Trump. Kamala simply has no factor that truly drives passion for her candidacy outside of not being Trump. That didn't work for Romney against Obama, it won't work here.

Trend over the past 2 weeks is solidly with Trump. The only thing team Kamala has come up with to try and change that is "Nazi" and "Puerto Rico joke." I don't see either of those turning the tide.

Unless something truly big occurs to change this narrative, I believe signs point to a Trump second term.

Edited by 4TigersinMichigan at 14:07:22 on 10/29/24