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Wrong conclusion
Posted on: September 21, 2024 at 10:30:20 CT
Ace AU
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Polling suggests voters, by large majorities, believe Harris won that encounter – when Trump, the Republican nominee and former president, effectively self-sabotaged by going on off-topic digressions about crowd sizes at his rallies and making universally debunked claims about Haitian immigrants eating pets.
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena nationwide poll on Thursday showed the candidates tied at 47% – actually a slight improvement for Harris on the same survey taken before the debate, when Trump recorded a one-point lead.
Other national polling has been more positive for Harris. A Morning Consult poll – based on more than 11,000 respondents – gave her a six-point advantage, 51% to 45%, the biggest she had established since replacing Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.
There are other underlying trends giving Harris reasons to be cheerful, albeit cautiously.
One is her buoyant performance in battleground states, the key arenas in determining the result of the 5 November election under America’s electoral college system.
The same New York Times/Siena poll that had the two candidates deadlocked nationally showed Harris with a four-point advantage, 50%-46%, in Pennsylvania, a swing state that many commentators identify as the most important of all in reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House.
The survey is supported by a separate poll from Quinnipiac, which shows Harris with a six-point lead in the state, 51% to 45%
Moreover, the Quinnipiac poll gives Harris leads in two neighbouring battlegrounds, Michigan and Wisconsin, 5% and 1% respectively.
Capturing all three states – sometimes termed the “blue wall” by Democrats – would be enough to secure Harris a tiny electoral college victory without her needing to win any of the four southern Sun belt states (North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona), where the two candidates are statistically tied.
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena nationwide poll on Thursday showed the candidates tied at 47% – actually a slight improvement for Harris on the same survey taken before the debate, when Trump recorded a one-point lead.
Other national polling has been more positive for Harris. A Morning Consult poll – based on more than 11,000 respondents – gave her a six-point advantage, 51% to 45%, the biggest she had established since replacing Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.
There are other underlying trends giving Harris reasons to be cheerful, albeit cautiously.
One is her buoyant performance in battleground states, the key arenas in determining the result of the 5 November election under America’s electoral college system.
The same New York Times/Siena poll that had the two candidates deadlocked nationally showed Harris with a four-point advantage, 50%-46%, in Pennsylvania, a swing state that many commentators identify as the most important of all in reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House.
The survey is supported by a separate poll from Quinnipiac, which shows Harris with a six-point lead in the state, 51% to 45%
Moreover, the Quinnipiac poll gives Harris leads in two neighbouring battlegrounds, Michigan and Wisconsin, 5% and 1% respectively.
Capturing all three states – sometimes termed the “blue wall” by Democrats – would be enough to secure Harris a tiny electoral college victory without her needing to win any of the four southern Sun belt states (North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona), where the two candidates are statistically tied.
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Wrong conclusion - Ace A - 9/21 10:30:20