JG examines the 2024 election -installment #1

Posted on: April 5, 2024 at 14:39:03 CT

First of all I want to preface this post with an obvious statement. I really hate and despise politics. Our two party system has created an environment where everything
is about politics. Every damn thing. And in reality very little SHOULD be political.
There may be different ways to build a bridge or grow some corn or deal with the homeless, but they should be viewed on what works not what some political party wants to do.

Unfortenately things are not viewed on what works its on what my political party wants, facts be damned to the point they are not even relevant.

So I don't really care what political party wins what...
per se, but I do care what is going to happen to America and thus we all get drug into the filth of petty politics.
That said I am interested in who wins and why and I have become fairly decent at reading the tea leaves.

This 2024 election will be fascinating in that there are so many factors at play for what will end up being a razor thin margin, yet could easily be a blow out in either direction. That sounds like an oxymoron but it is not.

Here are the most important issues -according to at least one poll
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362236/most-important-voter-issues-us/

These are kinda generic talking points and aren't baseless yet I suspect that a huge percentage of voters
will base their vote on a single issue.

But lets examine them

-inflation. Clearly trump is at least 60-70% responsible for our current inflation problems. But the incomparable
republican lie and spin machine has completely turned it on its head. The perceived (and thus real) advantage goes to trump but the facts say the advantage is Biden - but this issue is cooling more and more and will in all likelyhood be less of a factor by November.

-healthcare. Even the republicans can't quite spin this one to their favor (though it works with the MAGA bunch, as everything does. real advantage Biden

-immigration. This is the star issue of this cycle.
The vast majority is based on fear and nonsense.
The perception is that illegals are running rampant through every corner of America committing heinous crimes while be paid by your tax dollars to do them.
In reality we need these immigrants and trump will crash the economy if he does what he wants. Perception and thus real advantage trump. Fact based advantage Biden.
But the dems can make real inroads by emphasizing how trump doesn't care about the issue but played politics
for the past year.

-jobs and the economy. A clear and decisive fact based advantae to Biden. A nonsensical perception and thus real advantage to trump. Biden has been slow to counter the lies with facts, but he can make real movement in the months ahead by hammering the facts.

-climate and the environment. Obviously THE most important issue on this list and a YUgE advantage for democrats even though they are not particularly good in this regards, But the republicans are horribly terrible.

-taxes and government spending. Both are terrible at spending. taxing is superior to borrowig but in the end no one really gives a shiite about this issue and I doubt it actually drives a single vote by itself

-abortion. Access to abortion is wildly popular in America. It comes in at 8th on this list but as we shall see it probably is THE issue that may decide this election

-crime and guns . Both come in at 4%. they seemingly are different issues but I would posit they basically are the same issue looked at different ways. And the border issue is probably about 80& really about crime rather than immigration itself. I would say they about come in at the same for dems and repubs.

-civil rights at 3% and civil liberties at 2%.
not even republicans can lie and spin these issues to their advantage and remember this election will probably be decided by less than 100 thousand votes so this is potentially a yuge impact

Foreign policy and criminal justice reform at 1&.
See above for the impact. By foreign policy this is a wink wink to Ukraine and Gaza. The election again could turn on stupid arabs/muslims that actually think that trump will give them a better shake than Biden.
Complete delusion but advantage trump. And criminal justice reform -advantage trump though it has about zero impact at the Fed level.

So overall on the issues advantage goes to trump.Scary shiite.

But there are two more areas at play.

Next is voter makeup.
Roughly Americans are in four distinct camps
-nominal independents (though most are really either dems dems or repubs).they come in at the largest group
- dems - a distinct larger group than repubs, BUT they are usually less likely to stick with the straight party
-repubs the third group but they have this time a distinct -maybe 5-15% portion who WILL NOT vote for trump under any circumstance . My guess is they largely will not vote dem but may draw enough away to cost trump dearly
- other parties particularly Kennedy who could be this years Ross Perot. It was looking like he would draw away from trump but his VP pick looks like he would draw away from Biden .
Overall when push comes to shove the independents will probably swing dem. But its a tight thing

THE TREND -things are trending towards BIDEN as the polls tightened and trump goes to the first of his
should be trials. When he has been found guilty and loses his immunity bid at the Supreme Court it will continue to swing Biden

THE FEAR- this is a huge deal A recent poll says that 40% of republicans will vote trump for fear of BIden.
However 60% of democrats will vote for Biden for fear of trump (and rightfully so). advantage Biden as fear is
a very large motivator for people to show up (or mail) to vote.

The STATES- There are a grand total of 9 States that will make any sort of difference whatsoever. And this is very bad news for trump. One I think will go to trump but may require a lot of extra (you wouldn't think needed) effort and that surprisingly is Texas.
Texas has been sliding dem. trump's make racism OK campaign reversed that for a time but it looks like Cruz is worried and if Cruz loses, so will trump. and if trump loses Texas sayonara punk.
The next one is North Carolina. NC has 200,000 fewer repubs than dems and 300,000 fewer of those than independent. Again if trump loses them he is toast.
The third is Florida which De Santis put into play- LOL
And that is because of abortion. A 2% swing would give Florida to Biden. Now Biden does not HAVE to win any of them, but trump absolutely has to.
Then we have Georgia. Georgia seems to definitely appear to be a dem state. But gerrymandering and voter suppression efforts have been redoubled by republicans. This will be a very bitter and interesting result. Again trump almost can not lose Ga but Biden can if he sweeps the rest.
Pennsylvania will be close again , but I think it goes Biden. Wisconsin was the closest of all and you could flip a coin as to who wins. But again Biden doesn't HAVE to. Michigan -it will probably be decided by what the Muslim/arabs decide- will they vote against their own interests like the typical trumplican or not?
Arizona will have abortion on its ballot . Hard to believe trump will overcome that AND Kari lake.
Nevada seemingly might go to trump but the thing is that
Vegas has added another 200,000 people since 2022 and that probably adds another 30,000 voter swing to Biden. Rural Nevada can not make up that difference and their voters are decreasing, not increasing.

Now through all of that spot on anaylsis the best bet at this point is that it ends EXACTLY like it did last time

but again less than 50,000 can swing the difference and probably 300,000 can make it a complete rout one way or the other.

And now the deflective song and dance even if most of the brain trust even reads this. sorry its so long