Have we discussed Climate Change today?

Posted on: March 28, 2024 at 13:40:24 CT

It didn’t make many headlines, but last week, at a meeting of the International Maritime Organization, something potentially world-changing happened.

The United Nations agency, which regulates the shipping industry, essentially committed to creating the world’s first global carbon price.

“I’m very confident that there is going to be an economic pricing mechanism by this time next year,” Arsenio Dominguez, the Secretary General of the maritime organization, said. “What form it is going to have and what the name is going to be, I don’t know.”

The proposal would require shipping companies to pay a fee for every ton of carbon they emit by burning fuel. In other words, it’s a tax.

That could raise a significant amount of money and lead to sweeping changes in the shipping industry. It would also be a first step toward the lofty goal of a carbon tax not limited to a particular country, but a global one. (Some 70 countries and states around the world have put a price on carbon, either through taxes or trading mechanisms.)

Many activists and economists have argued that putting a price on carbon is crucial to addressing the collective threat of climate change, because it can both deter pollution and fund a cleaner, more resilient economy.

A big pot of money

The world’s attention turned to the shipping industry this week when the Dali, a massive container ship, lost power and crashed into the Key Bridge in Baltimore. But there are at least 50,000 cargo ships like the Dali constantly on the move, transporting the vast majority of the world’s goods.

Shipping accounts for roughly 3 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, slightly more than aviation. Taxing its carbon emissions would very likely raise tens of billions of dollars a year for climate policy.

By comparison, developed nations have donated $9 billion to the Green Climate Fund, a U.N. program meant to help developing countries tackle climate change, but activist groups say this is far less than what is needed.

“We are talking about something that can really improve the landscape of climate finance,” said Dominik Englert, an economist who researches green shipping at the World Bank. “Given the volumes that we see and given the needs that we see, we think that it can go beyond shipping.”

There is still a lot to work out. But moving forward may be easier than with global climate negotiations that require unanimous support. Decisions at the I.M.O. are made by a majority of the member countries.

What countries agreed to do

The maritime organization said it was simply living up to its pledge, made last year, to decarbonize the entire shipping industry by 2050. Its member countries have agreed that they need to start charging the shipping industry for emissions of heat-trapping gases in 2027.

Last week, in a consensus vote, I.M.O. member nations detailed the decisions that still need to be made about pricing carbon. How would a price be calculated? Would it be a flat fee or part of a trading mechanism between companies? Who would collect the money and distribute it? And which fuels are considered low-carbon?

Countries are looking at seven different proposals, in which prices range from $20 to $250 per ton of carbon emissions, according to the maritime organization. They hope to decide on all that by next year.

“It’s been an extremely hard process to get where we are now,” said Albon Ishoda, the Marshall Islands’ negotiator, who has proposed a tax of $150 per ton of carbon emitted.

What the impact could be

How would the carbon tax proceeds be distributed? Englert and his colleagues from the World Bank suggested in a study that countries should use the money to decarbonize the shipping industry, invest in efficiency measures that could reduce shipping costs for poorer countries and deployed for broader climate action.

Charging for ships’ carbon emissions could have an impact on basically everything we buy. Coffee from Colombia, T-shirts from Vietnam and mobile phones from China all get to consumers across the world by ship.

Roel Hoenders, the I.M.O.’s head of climate action, warned that small countries could end up paying steeper prices for basic goods. Countries that built their economies around shipping commodities could lose significant revenue, because shipping accounts for such a large share of the price of their exports.

Assessing the impact each measure would have “is quite an important part of the work, particularly for developing countries,” he said. “An increase in carbon price may have an impact on their competitiveness at a global scale.”

Lessons for the rest of the world

Some of the shipping industry’s biggest players have come around to the need for cleaner fuels and are looking for ways to develop them more quickly. Maersk, the second-largest container shipping company, has already invested billions in its decarbonization efforts.

“Surprisingly for me, the industry has been perhaps more progressive in trying to put forward a target,” Ishoda said. “Many in the industry know that fossil fuels are finite. We have seen a lot more — I wouldn’t say progress, I wouldn’t call it that — but an openness to the idea of ways to raise revenues to decarbonize the shipping sector.”

Many of the world’s biggest shipping companies are pushing for a more ambitious carbon price, because that would mean they wouldn’t need to pay for the same emissions in Europe. Companies ideally want to avoid paying carbon taxes in multiple jurisdictions, which would result in a lot of complex and expensive accounting.

There are a lot of difficult compromises ahead. Still, Englert said he hoped the shipping industry’s experience with pricing carbon would send a signal to the world about how powerful such a policy can be.

When done right, carbon pricing “is the most cost effective and the most straightforward policy that provides the widest range of flexibility to all economic stakeholders,” he said. “You can basically help the planet, help the climate and at the same time use the revenue to foster development.”