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Doesn't seem reasonable to believe Ukraine can prevail
Posted on: February 24, 2024 at 07:51:59 CT
kp83 MU
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Three Experts analyze state of Ukraine war 2 years into Russia’s invasion | PBS NewsHour
A good debate between experts…
John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago: Well, I disagree.
I think that Ukraine has already lost the war. It’s lost 20 percent of its territory, according to my calculations. And it’s not going to conquer that territory and get it back, as was demonstrated in the failed counteroffensive of last year.
The key to understanding where this war is headed is to know that it is a war of attrition. This is two armies that are standing toe-to-toe and beating the living daylights out of each other. And the question is, which army bleeds which army first? And it’s quite clear that the Russians are bleeding the Ukrainians white.
As the setup piece made clear, the Russians have about a 10-1 advantage in artillery. And there’s nothing we can do to fix that in the foreseeable future, because we don’t have artillery on the shelf that we can give them.
Furthermore, in terms of manpower, they are in absolutely terrible shape. They say they need a mobilization and will bring into the force 500,000 troops. They are not going to be able to mobilize 500,000 troops. In my opinion, they will be lucky if they can mobilize 150,000 troops.
And they’re already greatly outnumbered by the Russians, because the Russian population is five times bigger than the Ukrainian population. So when you look at the metrics that really matter in a war of attrition, the Ukrainians are in a terrible situation, and this situation only gets worse with time.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/experts-analyze-state-of-ukraine-war-2-years-into-russias-invasion
A good debate between experts…
John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago: Well, I disagree.
I think that Ukraine has already lost the war. It’s lost 20 percent of its territory, according to my calculations. And it’s not going to conquer that territory and get it back, as was demonstrated in the failed counteroffensive of last year.
The key to understanding where this war is headed is to know that it is a war of attrition. This is two armies that are standing toe-to-toe and beating the living daylights out of each other. And the question is, which army bleeds which army first? And it’s quite clear that the Russians are bleeding the Ukrainians white.
As the setup piece made clear, the Russians have about a 10-1 advantage in artillery. And there’s nothing we can do to fix that in the foreseeable future, because we don’t have artillery on the shelf that we can give them.
Furthermore, in terms of manpower, they are in absolutely terrible shape. They say they need a mobilization and will bring into the force 500,000 troops. They are not going to be able to mobilize 500,000 troops. In my opinion, they will be lucky if they can mobilize 150,000 troops.
And they’re already greatly outnumbered by the Russians, because the Russian population is five times bigger than the Ukrainian population. So when you look at the metrics that really matter in a war of attrition, the Ukrainians are in a terrible situation, and this situation only gets worse with time.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/experts-analyze-state-of-ukraine-war-2-years-into-russias-invasion
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Doesn't seem reasonable to believe Ukraine can prevail - kp83 MU - 2/24 07:51:59