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Senate...let's try to take a look at November

Posted on: June 29, 2022 at 12:55:01 CT
SparkyStalcup MU
Posts:
25084
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M.O.B. Votes:
5
and see what's likely to happen.

START: Dems 36 GOP 29 (folks who aren't up for election in 2022)


SAFE DEM (6)
Wyden - OR
Padilla - CA
Schumer - NY
Welch (taking over for Leahy) - VT
Van Hollen - MD
Schatz - HI

SAFE GOP (15)
Moran - KS
Crapo - ID
Lee - UT
Murkowski - AK
Thune - SD
Hoeven - ND
Lankford - OK
Mullin - OK (special election likely winner)
Boozman - AR
Grassley - IA
Scott - SC
Kennedy - LA
Young - IN
Paul - KY
Britt (replacing Shelby) - AL

Subtotal Dems 42 GOP 44

Likely D - (2)
Blumenthal - CT
Duckworth - IL

Likely R - (0)

Dems 44 GOP 44

Lean D (3)

Bennet - CO
Murray - WA
Kelly - AZ

Lean R (2)

Rubio - FL
Pick a Fascist - MO

Dems 47 GOP 46

Leaves us 7 tossup races

Ohio - Brown v. Vance
Georgia - Warnock v. Walker
Nevada - Cortez Masto v Laxalt
New Hampshire - Hassan v Morse (likely)
Pennsylvania - Fetterman v Oz
Wisconsin - Mandela Barnes (likely) v Johnson
North Carolina - Beasley v Budd

GOP needs 5 of 7 to take Senate. I'm being conservative leaving Hassan and Fetterman in tossup category...they could easily go lean D. It could go anywhere from 53-47 R to 54-46 D. Very much of a tossup, and hardly a foregone conclusion that the Senate will go red.

The House looks bleak. Looks like about 230-205 R, but the Roe decision may help Dems somewhat get out the vote.
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Senate...let's try to take a look at November - SparkyStalcup MU - 6/29 12:55:01
     It'll be interesting to see the effect of the RvW overturn - mizzouSECedes STL - 6/29 13:09:58
          There will be little impact - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 6/29 13:22:54
     "pick a facist" - dangertim MU - 6/29 13:00:16
          It was a joke, sort of. There are some running in Missouri - SparkyStalcup MU - 6/29 13:03:52
     Here is the problem for dems - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 6/29 12:59:02
          That'll lose the house for Dems most probably. The numbers - SparkyStalcup MU - 6/29 13:05:22
               Unless the economy turns rather sharply to the positive - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 6/29 13:11:15
                    The worst case would be 53R 47D. I'm sure the oil companies - SparkyStalcup MU - 6/29 13:13:33
                         Yes, this is all about gas companies gouging consumers - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 6/29 13:19:59
                              Last time oil prices were at this level gas was $3.75/gal. - SparkyStalcup MU - 6/29 13:53:09
                                   no, there isn’t gouging - pickle MU - 6/29 14:11:03
          and that's with the full force of the MSM - Wildcat KSU - 6/29 13:01:22
               Interesting, since the money and ads will be behind the GOP - SparkyStalcup MU - 6/29 13:06:14
               Yes, with all the media protection and cover - 4TigersinMichigan MU - 6/29 13:03:38
                    The $$$ and ads are behind the GOP. They do not have a - SparkyStalcup MU - 6/29 13:07:05
                         Why do you flat out lie every day?(nm) - Wildcat KSU - 6/29 14:19:38
     It doesn't even matter. America has already gone off - ashtray UF - 6/29 12:56:37
     All this time - Wildcat KSU - 6/29 12:56:31
          VaxNazis are definitely Facists(nm) - TigerFan92 STL - 6/29 13:02:13
     are you prepared to backup your claim? (nm) - pickle MU - 6/29 12:56:23
          Didn't make much of a claim here, except in a couple of - SparkyStalcup MU - 6/29 13:08:32




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