wins for 2022 - prediction
Posted on: December 28, 2021 at 11:48:10 CT
Gamagrass MU
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I only recently learned that the O/U for predicted wins is a sum of the win probability for each game. At least, that's one way to do it. A second way is to predict a best case and a worst case. CFN has a best case of 9-3 and a worst case of 5-7 for us last year. So we ended closer to their worst case. Ug.
Here is a guess:
@Middle TN – win probability .7
@KSU – .3
Abilene Christine – .9
@AU – .3
GA – .1
@FL – .2
Vandy – .7
@SCe – .4
KY – .3
@TN – .3
NM – .9
AR – .2
That puts us at an O/U of 5.3
Best case guess: 8-4 (win 4 of the 8 where we are not favored and all where we are favored)
Worst case: 4-8 (win only games where we are favored)
What do you say?