intention to vote for Trump, as a percentage?
If my math is right, right now the polls show Trump with 193 votes out of the 270 needed.
74 are within 5%. Florida 29, North Carolina 15, Pennsylvania 20, Nevada 6, New Hampshire 4
37 more are within 6-7%. Arizona 11, Michigan 16, Wisconsin 10
Trump may pick up 1 in Maine and lose 1 in Nebraska.
That's 304.
If Trump takes all within 5%, and one of the other 3 he should win.
I can see an easy 2-3 point increase for Trump with an easy 1-2 point drop for Biden, from hidden Trump supporters.
Then some who can't bring themselves to vote for a guy who has dementia to have the nuclear codes. Another 1-2%.
Then there will be those that refuse to put Kamala in charge, because you will have a pool on how many days he would last if he were to pull off the upset. Maybe 1/2 to 1%.
So, conservatively, if Trump goes up 3, 4, or 5%; and Biden drops 2-3%, Trump wins, maybe big.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/