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COVID-19.. what are the real odds?
Posted on: August 23, 2020 at 20:43:58 CT
TigerMatt STL
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Older little discussed article.
Overall, it’s probably less now than many likely believe, given the daily drumbeat of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths, according to new research this month by a pair of medical scientists at Stanford University and UCLA.
“The thing we are looking for is to start a discussion of risk,” Bhatia said. “We’re bombarded with data on death and cases.”
The study found a person in a typical medium to large U.S. county who has a single random contact with another person has, on average, a 1 in 3,836 chance of being infected without social distancing, hand-washing or mask-wearing.
If that sounds like a tolerable risk, consider the odds of being hospitalized. The study found a 50-to-64-year-old person who has a single random contact has, on average, a 1 in 852,000 chance of being hospitalized or a 1 in 19.1 million chance of dying based on rates as of the last week of May.
“We were surprised how low the relative risk was,” Klausner said.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/22/whats-your-risk-from-coronavirus-new-study-suggests-lower-than-we-perceive/amp/
Overall, it’s probably less now than many likely believe, given the daily drumbeat of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths, according to new research this month by a pair of medical scientists at Stanford University and UCLA.
“The thing we are looking for is to start a discussion of risk,” Bhatia said. “We’re bombarded with data on death and cases.”
The study found a person in a typical medium to large U.S. county who has a single random contact with another person has, on average, a 1 in 3,836 chance of being infected without social distancing, hand-washing or mask-wearing.
If that sounds like a tolerable risk, consider the odds of being hospitalized. The study found a 50-to-64-year-old person who has a single random contact has, on average, a 1 in 852,000 chance of being hospitalized or a 1 in 19.1 million chance of dying based on rates as of the last week of May.
“We were surprised how low the relative risk was,” Klausner said.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/22/whats-your-risk-from-coronavirus-new-study-suggests-lower-than-we-perceive/amp/
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COVID-19.. what are the real odds? - TigerMatt STL - 8/23 20:43:58