The same Chris Cillizza that wrote on Nov 1, 2016:

Posted on: July 7, 2020 at 16:53:15 CT

"The electoral map (still) favors Clinton (by a lot): Trump made campaign stops in New Mexico on Sunday and Michigan on Monday. Those last-minute visits may lead you to believe that he is expanding the map into Democratic strongholds. But there’s very little evidence that either state is all that competitive. Clinton holds a seven-point edge in Michigan, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average; she is up 8.5 points in New Mexico, according to Real Clear.....

Organization still favors Clinton (by a lot): Trump has said, time and time again in this campaign, that he thinks things such as data and organization are overrated — and that he prefers big crowds as the key to his success.

The problem for Trump is that early voting, which is heavily dependent on organization, is becoming more and more common. More than 21 million votes have been cast early in this election, according to calculations made by the U.S. Elections Project. In Florida alone, more than 3.5 million votes have been cast; 36 percent of likely voters say they have already voted in the state and they favor Clinton by 17 points, according to NBC political director Mark Murray.

And Florida is far from an isolated example. At the end of August, Democrats had 4,200 staffers compared to fewer than 900 for Republicans, according to calculations made by NBC......"