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Comparing COVID situation in several countries.
Posted on: April 2, 2020 at 12:12:30 CT
JeffB MU
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Germany https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/
* Daily New Cases appears to have topped off & is perhaps starting to decline slightly. The peak would have been March 27th.
* Daily New Deaths is still climbing, unfortunately. But there is a lag of about a month between 1st symptoms and death I believe, so hopefully that will start dropping too very soon.
* 95% recovered in closed cases
* 5% died in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 13
The big story here is their exceptional recovery rate. Of the closed cases 95% have recovered & 5% have died. The numbers are undoubtedly skewed towards a higher death rate because death happens faster than recovery, but their numbers are far and away better than virtually everyone else. Germany's average age is also probably skewed towards the older age brackets as they have a relatively low birth rate, though perhaps immigration has changed that a bit.
Look at their graph "Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in Germany". It is very different than those of other countries.
Italy: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
* Daily New Cases appears to have topped about March 21st & is starting to come down.
* Daily New Deaths appears to have topped about March 27th & is starting to come down slightly.
* 56% recovered in closed cases
* 44% died in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 230
Unfortunately, "Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in Italy" graph looks nothing like Germany's. They seem to be as far along in the bell curve as Germany, perhaps even further, but the outcomes are far worse. Some of that is undoubtedly due to the fact that their hospitals and staffs were hit with a veritable tidal wave of patients and were overwhelmed. They started off terribly at first, but then had a rapid improvement in that ratio over about a 5 day period. Then it seems to have had a slight deterioration over time from there.
Spain: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
* Daily New Cases seems to have peaked about March 26th but may have a 2nd smaller peak?
* Daily New Deaths is slowing, perhaps peaking as of yesterday
* 73% recovery in closed cases
* 27% deaths in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 216
"Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in Spain" graph is also very different, unfortunately, than Germany's.
France: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
* Daily New Cases seems to be peaking? with a big spike March 31st vs surrounding days.
* Daily New Deaths shows no indication it has peaked yet
* 73% recovery in closed cases
* 27% deaths in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 62
"Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in France" graph is also very different, unfortunately, than Germany's, and although the current outcome numbers are the same as Spain the graph on how they got there is rather different.
The United Kingdom: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
* Daily New Cases still seems to be climbing, unfortunately.
* Daily New Deaths also still seems to be climbing, unfortunately.
* 4% recovery in closed cases is horrible, but they are still in the early stages of the epidemic. The pattern is for those to improve markedly over time.
* 96% deaths in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 43
"Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in the United Kingdom" graph is also very different, unfortunately, than Germany's, and is currently by far the worst of those that I'm looking at here.
Iran: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/
Who knows how accurate the numbers they are reporting are, but here they are:
* Daily New Cases seems to be peaking at about March 30th.
* Daily New Deaths seems to have peaked on March 26th, which goes against the typical lag pattern. Perhaps their medical system got things together belatedly.
* 84% recovery in closed cases
* 16% deaths in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 38
"Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in Iran" graph is a little unusual. They had a 100% death rate for the first 4 days or so, but within about a week the recovery rate was significantly above the death rate. Not sure what they changed, but it obviously made a big difference in hurry.
The United States: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The site didn't give some of the relevant stats and graphs for the US as for the others for some reason. I calculated the % deaths/recovered manually. We seem to be a little earlier in the cycle than most of the other countries listed.
* Daily New Cases - No sign of a peak yet. Still exponential growth.
* Daily New Deaths - No sign of a peak yet. Still exponential growth.
* 64% recovery in closed cases
* 36% deaths in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 17
Edited by JeffB at 12:45:28 on 04/02/20
* Daily New Cases appears to have topped off & is perhaps starting to decline slightly. The peak would have been March 27th.
* Daily New Deaths is still climbing, unfortunately. But there is a lag of about a month between 1st symptoms and death I believe, so hopefully that will start dropping too very soon.
* 95% recovered in closed cases
* 5% died in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 13
The big story here is their exceptional recovery rate. Of the closed cases 95% have recovered & 5% have died. The numbers are undoubtedly skewed towards a higher death rate because death happens faster than recovery, but their numbers are far and away better than virtually everyone else. Germany's average age is also probably skewed towards the older age brackets as they have a relatively low birth rate, though perhaps immigration has changed that a bit.
Look at their graph "Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in Germany". It is very different than those of other countries.
Italy: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
* Daily New Cases appears to have topped about March 21st & is starting to come down.
* Daily New Deaths appears to have topped about March 27th & is starting to come down slightly.
* 56% recovered in closed cases
* 44% died in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 230
Unfortunately, "Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in Italy" graph looks nothing like Germany's. They seem to be as far along in the bell curve as Germany, perhaps even further, but the outcomes are far worse. Some of that is undoubtedly due to the fact that their hospitals and staffs were hit with a veritable tidal wave of patients and were overwhelmed. They started off terribly at first, but then had a rapid improvement in that ratio over about a 5 day period. Then it seems to have had a slight deterioration over time from there.
Spain: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
* Daily New Cases seems to have peaked about March 26th but may have a 2nd smaller peak?
* Daily New Deaths is slowing, perhaps peaking as of yesterday
* 73% recovery in closed cases
* 27% deaths in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 216
"Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in Spain" graph is also very different, unfortunately, than Germany's.
France: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
* Daily New Cases seems to be peaking? with a big spike March 31st vs surrounding days.
* Daily New Deaths shows no indication it has peaked yet
* 73% recovery in closed cases
* 27% deaths in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 62
"Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in France" graph is also very different, unfortunately, than Germany's, and although the current outcome numbers are the same as Spain the graph on how they got there is rather different.
The United Kingdom: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
* Daily New Cases still seems to be climbing, unfortunately.
* Daily New Deaths also still seems to be climbing, unfortunately.
* 4% recovery in closed cases is horrible, but they are still in the early stages of the epidemic. The pattern is for those to improve markedly over time.
* 96% deaths in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 43
"Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in the United Kingdom" graph is also very different, unfortunately, than Germany's, and is currently by far the worst of those that I'm looking at here.
Iran: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/
Who knows how accurate the numbers they are reporting are, but here they are:
* Daily New Cases seems to be peaking at about March 30th.
* Daily New Deaths seems to have peaked on March 26th, which goes against the typical lag pattern. Perhaps their medical system got things together belatedly.
* 84% recovery in closed cases
* 16% deaths in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 38
"Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in Iran" graph is a little unusual. They had a 100% death rate for the first 4 days or so, but within about a week the recovery rate was significantly above the death rate. Not sure what they changed, but it obviously made a big difference in hurry.
The United States: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The site didn't give some of the relevant stats and graphs for the US as for the others for some reason. I calculated the % deaths/recovered manually. We seem to be a little earlier in the cycle than most of the other countries listed.
* Daily New Cases - No sign of a peak yet. Still exponential growth.
* Daily New Deaths - No sign of a peak yet. Still exponential growth.
* 64% recovery in closed cases
* 36% deaths in closed cases
* deaths per million population (12:25pm 4-2-20): 17
Edited by JeffB at 12:45:28 on 04/02/20
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Comparing COVID situation in several countries. - JeffB MU - 4/2 12:12:30