What simple math might you be referring to? At the current
Posted on: March 20, 2020 at 16:56:20 CT
DHighlander NWMSU
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rates Italy will have the same number of Corona deaths by mid-July as they have in an average flu season. Yes the numbers are still trending upwards but they are still mostly confined to the oldest and least healthy of their population.
I don’t believe you can trust the Chinese numbers but it appears that they flattened out after a couple of months. That suggest that Italy has a few more tough weeks ahead of them but it would have to continue on ths track until the fall to be significantly worse than an average flu season.