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Say the hospitalization rate is 10%, but is dropping, and
Posted on: March 18, 2020 at 10:02:37 CT
TigerJackSwartz MU
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gets down to 7%.
If you have 8,000 cases now, that would be 800 hospitalizations.
But if it keeps doubling every 3 days like it has been, in two weeks there are about 130,000 cases, even if the hospitalization rate drops to 7%, you still have 9100 hospitalizations.
The hospitalization rate is a made up percentage, I don't know what it is. But the rates (mortality or hospitalization) aren't so much the problem at this point - the problem is the exponential spread of the virus if left unchecked (which is exacerbated by the up to 14 day incubation period), applied against whatever that hospitalization percentage actually is. It is about the potential to overwhelm the healthcare system.
Edited by TigerJackSwartz at 10:03:31 on 03/18/20
If you have 8,000 cases now, that would be 800 hospitalizations.
But if it keeps doubling every 3 days like it has been, in two weeks there are about 130,000 cases, even if the hospitalization rate drops to 7%, you still have 9100 hospitalizations.
The hospitalization rate is a made up percentage, I don't know what it is. But the rates (mortality or hospitalization) aren't so much the problem at this point - the problem is the exponential spread of the virus if left unchecked (which is exacerbated by the up to 14 day incubation period), applied against whatever that hospitalization percentage actually is. It is about the potential to overwhelm the healthcare system.
Edited by TigerJackSwartz at 10:03:31 on 03/18/20
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Say the hospitalization rate is 10%, but is dropping, and - TigerJackSwartz MU - 3/18 10:02:37