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Afghanistan
Posted on: March 1, 2020 at 10:01:53 CT
kp83 MU
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This, from dufrst on CTH, struck me as the most cogent and insightful analysis of the Trump strategy I have run across:
The real game is between Pakistan and India. Trump’s trip to India was totally about this deal with the Taliban (along with trade talks strategically aimed at decoupling from China). Pakistan sponsors the Taliban. Trump met with Pakistan’s President Imran Khan a few weeks ago in the White House and basically asked him to control the Taliban. Khan undoubtedly insisted on Trump aiding Pakistan with India, who was under Modi, making things very difficult for the muslim population within India and in the disputed Kashmir region. Trump then had to go to India and offer great economic benefits and military deals in return for taking it easy on the muslim population and to leave open the possibility of negotiations on Kashmir. This is what I think happened.
That the Taliban signed this deal tells me that Trump successfully threaded the needle between Pakistan and India. This deal does not happen if Pakistan is unhappy with Trump’s visit to India. Now the tough part begins. Trump must continue to prod Pakistan to control the Taliban, while bringing India to a focus away from Pakistan in exchange for great economic and military benefits.
I have continually marveled at the strategic brilliance of Trump. He has been able to achieve so much in foreign policy because he understands who is really moving things. He understood very early that the Taliban were merely a front for Pakistan vying for control of Afghanistan and training radical islamic fighters to be unleashed on India. India has 1.5 billion people and could easily overwhelm Pakistan and now have a president who might actually do that!
Edited by kp83 at 10:02:12 on 03/01/20
The real game is between Pakistan and India. Trump’s trip to India was totally about this deal with the Taliban (along with trade talks strategically aimed at decoupling from China). Pakistan sponsors the Taliban. Trump met with Pakistan’s President Imran Khan a few weeks ago in the White House and basically asked him to control the Taliban. Khan undoubtedly insisted on Trump aiding Pakistan with India, who was under Modi, making things very difficult for the muslim population within India and in the disputed Kashmir region. Trump then had to go to India and offer great economic benefits and military deals in return for taking it easy on the muslim population and to leave open the possibility of negotiations on Kashmir. This is what I think happened.
That the Taliban signed this deal tells me that Trump successfully threaded the needle between Pakistan and India. This deal does not happen if Pakistan is unhappy with Trump’s visit to India. Now the tough part begins. Trump must continue to prod Pakistan to control the Taliban, while bringing India to a focus away from Pakistan in exchange for great economic and military benefits.
I have continually marveled at the strategic brilliance of Trump. He has been able to achieve so much in foreign policy because he understands who is really moving things. He understood very early that the Taliban were merely a front for Pakistan vying for control of Afghanistan and training radical islamic fighters to be unleashed on India. India has 1.5 billion people and could easily overwhelm Pakistan and now have a president who might actually do that!
Edited by kp83 at 10:02:12 on 03/01/20
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Afghanistan - kp83 MU - 3/1 10:01:53